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- Earnings from Apple and Amazon after the bell brought an immediate shock to the broad market - Amazon is down about 10% after the fourth largest company in the U.S. by market cap lost $7.56 per share when +$8.37 was expected. - Amazon recorded a $7.6 billion loss from Rivian’s stock and revenue growth increased by only 7%, the slowest since 2001. It added that revenue could drag through the fourth quarter. - Apple beat top and bottom-line estimates, but that is not enough in this environment. The stock is down about 2% after the company said supply chain problems could reduce sales by as much as $8 billion in the current quarter. - Intel didn’t help, although beating top and bottom estimates, the company’s guidance disappointed and the stock is down about 4% premarket. - Every major stock from a deluge of mixed earnings this morning is down, except Honeywell. - Chevron’s EPS missed on lofty expectations, but Exxon’s EPS miss was in part due to a hit from its Russian operations. - Stocks in China finished the week on great strength after the country's Communist Party promised added stimulus to boost the economy in the wake of virus lockdowns. Hang Seng +4.01%, Shanghai Composite +2.41% and KWEB, the China Internet ETF, is +10% premarket. - The U.S. Dollar spiked to a new swing high versus the Chinese Yuan but reversed sharply, to trade down 0.5%, the USDCNH is still +4.2% on the month but the move has certainly lifted the metals complex. - Q1 GDP data from the Eurozone showed growth, unlike the U.S., despite the Ukraine-Russia war. Though growth was more a sign of a later reopening versus the U.S. - Eurozone CPI set a new record at 7.5%, but in line with expectations. - Core PCE for March, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, came in at 5.2% versus 5.3% expected. February was revised from 5.4% to 5.3%. - Both Personal Spending and Income topped expectations; 1.1% vs 0.7% and 0.5% vs 0.4%, respectively, with revisions high for February. - Employment Cost Index jumped by 1.4% in Q1, most since data goes to 2008.

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E-mini S&P (June) / NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4283.50, up 103.25

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 13016.00, down 519.75

- Almost out of the woods yesterday but slammed on earnings, highlighted above.

- Positive tailwinds from China overnight, highlighted above.

- Per Midday Market Minute, we needed to close above 4492.75 to bring added tailwinds. Traded to 4303.50 and matched the Tuesday overnight high before failing into the close.

- We maintain a cautiously Bullish Bias; risk is shifting to the upside due to excessive negativity and measured downside.

- There have been great, two-sided trading opportunities all week.

- Price action has fallen into an overnight range, defined by first and second support and resistance in each, listed below.

- Look for continued action through the first hour above or below our Pivot and point of balance at 4253.50 for the S&P and 13,271-13,305 for the NQ in order to provide some direction in the first half of the session.

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NQ (June)

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Crude Oil (June)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 105.36, up 3.34

- Crude roared higher yesterday after Germany is said to drop opposition to Russian Oil embargo, highlighted in the Midday Market Minute.

- We view stable GDP growth and inflation from the Eurozone relative to expectations as a bullish catalyst.

- Reports that Russian Oil output down 9% in April MoM, remember our spare capacity narrative as OPEC+ looks to add 400,000 bpd in June next week.

- Price action is testing a big level of resistance aligning multiple indicators with a trend line from March 24th high.

- Bulls are in control and looking to break out above trend line if prices hold above 105.23-105.64.

- Targeting 109.85-110.22 to 111.06 in near-term, and then higher.

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Gold (June) / Silver (July)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1891.3, up 2.6

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.181, down 0.324

- Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, was soft. But Employment Cost Index surged by a record 1.4% in Q1, another gauge of inflation. Weighing on precious metals from overnight highs.

- China stimulus talks, referenced above, boosted metals overnight. Coupled with USDCNH reversing from a new high.

- Gold session high of 1921.3 is a direct retest and early failure at recurring 1923.7-1924.9 level aligning with 2011 record.

- Silver Pac-Man lows yesterday but cannot revisit and take out 22.94 today.

- Buyers of Silver yesterday, off our discussion here and Midday Market Minute, had an opportunity to capitalize overnight with a high of 23.65 (shy of 23.75-23.80 resistance), but still a disappointing turn lower. A break below 22.94 opens door to next major three-star support at 21.98

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Silver (July)

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