Grain Express 4/07/22
Posted: April 7, 2022, 9:26 a.m.
Corn (May)
Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 782,400 MT for 2021/2022 were up 23 percent from the previous week, but down 44 percent from the prior 4-week average. This morning’s CONAB report showed Brazilian production at 115.60mmt, up from 112.34 in their previous estimate. All eyes are no on tomorrow’s report, which we don’t see being as big of a deal as the most recent acreage report. Estimates for US ending stocks are near 1.415 billion bushels. The average estimate for world ending stocks is at 300.91 mmt. The bigger focus in this report will likely be on South American production. The average estimate for Argentine production is at 52.05mmt, down from the 53.0 we saw in the March report. The average estimate for Brazil corn production is at 115.09mmt, up from the 114.0 we saw in March.
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Soybeans (May)
Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 800,700 MT for 2021/2022 were down 39 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. This morning’s CONAB report showed Brazilian soybean production at 122.43 mmt, down from their previous estimate, 122.77. Attention now shifts to tomorrow’s WASDE report. The average estimate for US ending stocks is near .262 billion bushels. The average estimate for world ending stocks is at 88.79 mmt. The bigger focus in this report will likely be on South American production. The average estimate for Argentine production is at 42.83mmt, down from the 43.5mmt we saw in the March report. The average estimate for Brazil soybean production is at 125.14mmt, down from the 127.0 we saw in March. Remember that may private analysts have been much lower than the USDA on Brazilian production, meaning that the market may be pricing in below what the USDA has printed.
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Wheat (May)
Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 156,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 65 percent from the previous week, but down 11 percent from the prior 4-week average.
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