New Month, New Market?

Corn

News

• Yesterday's weekly export sales for old crop and new crop corn were within expectation.
• Labor Day weekend is upon us which means grain markets will be closed Sunday night/Monday.  They will reopen Monday evening. 

Technicals (December)

December corn futures continue to get dragged along the bottom of the recent range, fishing for a short-term low.  This type of trade fits wtih what we've been talking about for much of the week, which is that we wouldn't be surprised to see a choppy sideways trade in the near term.  Not a great environment for perma-bulls or perma-bears, but great for shorter term trading opportunities on both sides of the market. Support remains intact from 472-476.  A break and close below that pocket could accelerate the selling pressure.  On the flip side, 489-491 is our pivot pocket.  If the Bulls can muster up the energy to get out and close above this pocket it could reinvigorate buyers and take us back towards the upper end of the recent range, 502-506 1/2. 

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 497 1/2**, 502-506 1/2***, 518-525 3/4****

Pivot:  489-491

Support:  472-476****, 460-464 1/2**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at seasonal averages for December corn.  The 5-year seasonal average suggests seasonal consolidation while longer term averages continue to trend lower into harvest. 

Soybeans 

News

• Yesterday's weekly export sales report for old crop soybeans saw net reductions, which was not expected when looking at the pre-report estimates.  New crop sales were within the range of expectations. 
• There was another flash sale reported yesterday morning, this one amounted to 132,000 metric tons and is for delivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
• Labor Day weekend is upon us which means grain markets will be closed Sunday night/Monday.  They will reopen Monday evening. 
   

Technicals (November)

Soybean futures got hit hard in yesterday's trade, making new low for the week.  Zero follow-through in the overnight and early morning trade is a silver lining for the Bull camp.  If the market takes out the lows that were posted over the last 24-hours it could open the door for a retest of trendline support (white line on chart) which is derived from the May 31st low.  You also have two major moving averages on either side of that.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 1390 1/2-1392**, 1409 1/2**, 1428-1435****

Pivot: 1373-1381 

Support: 1350-1355***

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at seasonal averages for November soybeans.  We've noted in previous reports that seasonal tendencies suggest this is a time of year where the market attempts to consolidate and carve out a near term low. 

Wheat

News

• Yesterday's weekly export sales report was reported at 329,000 metric tons, that was within the range of estimates.  
• Labor Day weekend is upon us which means grain markets will be closed Sunday night/Monday.  They will reopen Monday evening. 
   

Technicals (December)

Midway through yesterday's trade wheat futures made a run at our pivot pocket, briefly trading over it, but ultimately failing.  The Bulls want to see a close above this pocket to spur a more meaningful short covering rally.  

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 643 1/2-646 1/4****, 677 1/4-682 1/4*** 

Pivot: 608 1/4-612 

Support:  595-599 1/2** 

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at seasonal averages for December Chicago wheat.  The market is tracking the 15-year average the most closely (blue line), which suggests lower into the middle of September.  The more recent 5-year average (red line) shows that consolidation has been happening earlier, which may help the market start to carve out a low against that May 31st low, 608 1/4.