Better than Expected Crop Conditions Weigh on Prices

Corn

News

• Monday Morning Flash Sale: Private exporters reported 123,000 metric tons (4,842,294 bushels) of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
• Weekly export inspections were reported at 597,144 metric tons (23,508,514 bushels), above the top end of expectations but still 33% lower year over year.
• Weekly Crop Progress showed good/excellent conditions at 56%, that's a 2% drop from last week but 1% better than expectations and 2% better than this time last year.  88% of the crop is in dough stage, 51% dented, and 9% mature. 

Technicals (December)

December corn futures were able to retain strength yesterday but have slipped some in the overnight trade following a better-than-expected crop progress report.  With that said, the market has been able to defend yesterday's low and is trading near the upper end of this week's range. If the Bulls can get out above yesterday's high of 497 1/2, we could see the market make an attempt at last week's high and our resistance pocket, 502-506 1/2. On the support side of things, the Bulls want to defend 489-491.  A break and close below there could take prices to retest our 4-star support pocket, 472-476.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 497 1/2**, 502-506 1/2***, 518-525 3/4****

Pivot:  489-491

Support:  472-476****, 460-464 1/2**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at seasonal averages for December corn.  The 5-year seasonal average suggests seasonal consolidation while longer term averages continue to trend lower into harvest. 

Soybeans 

News

• Monday Morning Flash Sale: Private exporters reported 296,000 metric tons (10,876,135 bushels) of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
• Weekly Export Inspections were reported at 322,149 metric tons (11,836,946 bushels).  This was in line with estimates and is still 8% behind year over year.
• Weekly Crop Progress showed good/excellent conditions at 58%, that was a 1% decline from last week but 2% better than expected and 1% better than the same time last year.  91% of the crop is setting pods and 5% is dropping leaves.

Technicals (November)

November soybean futures opened the overnight trade lower, partially filling the Sunday night gap higher.  A small gap from 1390 1/2-1392 remains open. A break and close below that pocket could spur a round of long liquidation back to 1373-1381.  On the resistance side of things, yesterday's high of 1409 1/2 is the hurdle the Bulls want to get out above.  If they can achieve that we could see a retest of the July highs, 1428-1435.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 1409 1/2**, 1428-1435****

Pivot: 1390 1/2-1392

Support:  1373-1381****, 1350-1355***

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at seasonal averages for November soybeans.  We've noted in previous reports that seasonal tendencies suggest this is a time of year where the market attempts to consolidate and carve out a near term low. 

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook

Below is a look at the updated 6-10 day weather outlook.  As you can clearly see, much of the Midwest is expected to see above normal temperatures coupled with below normal precipitation through the first week of September.  This comes on the back of last week's heat which likely didn't do many favors to the soybean (or corn) crop. 

Wheat

News

• Weekly export inspections were reported at 390,364 metric tons (14,343,417 bushels), above the top end of expectations but still 21% lower year over year.
• Weekly Crop Progress showed good/excellent conditions for spring wheat at 37%, that's a 1% drop from last week but in line with expectations.  54% of the crop is harvested. 

Technicals (December)

Wheat has been and will continue to be the anchor until proven otherwise.  There's an old saying, tops and bottoms are a process, not a point.  As of now, a bottoming process is nowhere to be found.  Support comes in from 608 1/4-612.  A break and close below that pocket and we are basically back in uncharted territory.  If the Bulls (if there are any left) can defend that pocket, we could see the market retest the top end of the recent range. 643 1/2-646 1/4.  The Bears have control of the technical landscape until the market can achieve consecutive closes above that pocket. 

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 643 1/2-646 1/4****, 677 1/4-682 1/4*** 

Support:  608 1/4-612***

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at seasonal averages for December Chicago wheat.  The market is tracking the 15-year average the most closely (blue line), which suggests lower into the middle of September.  The more recent 5-year average (red line) shows that consolidation has been happening earlier, which may help the market start to carve out a low against that May 31st low, 608 1/4.