The Monday After Powell
Posted: Aug. 28, 2023, 8:51 a.m.
E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 4414.25, up 28.25 on Friday and 31.50 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 14,979.25, up 117.25 on Friday and 235.25 on the week
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures dug out a nice bottom attempt through midday Friday. In a volatile session, the spike high during Fed Chair Powell’s speech, at 4427.75 in the E-mini S&P and 15,048 in the E-mini NQ, will serve as our Pivot and point of balance on the session, a key marker in which the bulls are in the driver’s seat while out above. Still, traders cannot ignore the damage left in the path of Thursday’s first hour of trade and the dead bodies (supply) which the market will need to chew through.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 4439-4439.75**, 4447-4451***, 4455.25-4459**, 4468.75-4473***, 4483-4485.25*, 4491-4492.25***, 4506***, 4517.75-4525***
Pivot: 4427.75
Support: 4408.50-4414.50***, 4496-4400.75**, 4382.50-4387***, 4365.25-4372.25***, 4348.75***, 4340.75**, 4327.50***, 4304.75****, 4269***, 4201.75-4208.50****
NQ (Sept)
Resistance: 15,086-15,092**, 15,164-15,195****, 14,242-15,270**, 15,335-15,345****, 15,442**, 15,485-15,508***, 15,583-15,610**, 15,780-15,817****
Pivot: 15,048
Support: 14,932-14,980***, 14,870-14,892**, 14,806-14,837**, 14,744-14,751****, 14,692**, 14,609-14,648***, 14,556**, 14,420-14,503***, 14,332***, 13,931***
Crude Oil (October)
Last week’s close: Settled at 79.95, up 0.12 on Friday and down 0.83 on the week
Crude Oil futures are chopping around but holding constructively out above a critical area of support at 77.59-77.76. Ultimately, a continued consolidation out above here would help build a bull-flag pattern on a weekly basis.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 80.37-80.45**, 80.66-80.97**, 81.24-81.38**, 81.65-82.03***, 82.82-83.19***
Pivot: 80.00
Support: 79.05-79.45***, 78.14-78.33**, 77.59-77.76***, 76.78-76.84***
Gold (December) / Silver (September)
Gold, last week’s close: Settled 1939.9, down 7.2 on Friday and up 23.4 on the week
Silver, last week’s close: Settled at 24.583, up 0.008 on Friday and 1.523 on the week
Gold and Silver futures weathered a volatile end to a strong week. Most importantly, after flushing down a bit, both were able to respond to support and battle back for constructive settlements on a weekly basis. The overhead supply from the early August damage is likely keeping a lid on prices along with Silver’s September options expiration today, however, we remain upbeat that another strong week is doable, though it certainly will depend on the data, and the misguided ADP Payroll data lurks.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1946.6-1948.1**, 1957.5***, 1971.5**, 1976.1-1982.6****
Pivot: 1942
Support: 1939.2-1940.7**, 1931.5-1935.3***, 1926-1927.9**, 1922.5-1923***, 1913.6-1916.5***, 1903.6-1906.9***
Silver (September)
Resistance: 24.40***, 24.50-24.63**, 24.97***
Pivot: 24.25
Support: 24.06-24.18**, 23.87***, 23.69-23.72**, 23.36-23.49***, 22.95-23.07****
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