Defining the Balance Ahead of Powell
Posted: Aug. 24, 2023, 8:42 a.m.
- Initial Jobless Claims came in better than expected at 230k versus 240k, but the four-week average was above forecast at 237k versus 235k.
- Durable Goods were mixed with headline missing -5.2% versus -4.0% m/m and Core beating at +0.5% versus +0.2%.
- Keep an ear to the ground for a loose but jam-packed schedule of Fed speak, as many will be making media network appearances and holding talks within the symposium.
E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4447.00, up 47.75
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,195.50, 237.00
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures had a banner rebound session before NVDA blew the doors off another earnings report. Price action in the E-mini S&P ran into a critical level of resistance intraday, the scene of the crime, if you will, our rare major four-star at 4454-4459. Similarly, the E-mini NQ ran into rare major four-star resistance at 15,270-15,336 before settling at 15,195 and above the 15,164 level. However, NVDA’s third beat and raise in a row ripped each index out above those levels. The company topped lofty expectations of $12 billion in sales for the quarter ending in July and $14 billion forecast for the current quarter with $13.5 billion and $16 billion, respectively.
As Jackson Hole gets underway, a deluge of Fed speak (listed above) will bring added volatility. Although the previous resistance is now the first key support, adjusted to 4455.25-4459, the gap settlement at 4447 becomes the line in the sand. Similarly, we have 15,242-15,270 as the first key support in the E-mini NQ, but 15,164-15,195 as the rare major four-star line in the sand.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 4491-4492.25***, 4506***, 4517.75-4525***
Pivot: 4465.50
Support: 4455.25-4459**, 4447***, 4438.50**, 4427.50-4432***, 4408.50-4412.50***, 4396-4399.25***, 4382.50-4384.50***, 4367.25-4372.25***
NQ (Sept)
Resistance: 15,336-15,345****, 15,442**, 15,485-15,508***, 15,583-15,610**, 15,780-15,817****
Support: 14,242-15,270**, 15,164-15,195****, 15,092**,14,983-15,007***, 14,932-14,958***, 14,856-14,870***, 14,778-14,806***
Crude Oil (October)
Yesterday’s: Settled at 78.89, down 0.75
Crude Oil futures are trading a bit heavily but maintaining a consolidation pattern above significant support. Yesterday morning, our downside target of 77.76 was achieved before a bounce. Although the EIA report did bid Crude Oil futures with a larger headline draw in Crude, key resistance at 79.46-79.64 held perfectly. This level is now major three-star resistance, and the bulls must clear this pocket in order to reinvigorate the tape or face continued waves of selling/liquidation.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 79.07*, 79.46-79.64***, 80.12-80.21**, 80.97-81.38***
Pivot: 78.75-78.90
Support: 78.33-78.60**, 77.76***, 76.78-76.84***
Gold (December) / Silver (September)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled 1948.1, up 22.1
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24.392, up 0.942
Gold and Silver futures had already begun a recovery phase, but a lighter-than-expected flash PMI report yesterday morning helped bring a secondary tailwind, subduing the U.S. Dollar’s strength and bidding Treasuries. Initial Jobless Claims came in better than expected this morning at 230k versus 240k and encouraged some selling in both, but we are watching the four-week average, which came in higher than forecast at 237k versus 235k. This brings us to today’s deluge of Fed speak, which leads into Fed Chair Powell tomorrow. It becomes paramount that Gold and Silver futures receive and respond to supports listed below.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1946.6-1948.1**, 1957.5***, 1971.5**, 1976.1-1982.6****
Support: 1939.2-1940.7***, 1931.5-1935.3***, 1926-1927.9**, 1922.5-1923***, 1913.6-1916.5***, 1903.6-1906.9***
Silver (September)
Resistance: 24.40***, 24.50-24.63**, 24.97***
Pivot: 24.25
Support: 24.06-24.18**, 23.87***, 23.69-23.72**, 23.36-23.49***, 22.95-23.07****
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