Is A Reprieve In Order?
Posted: Aug. 17, 2023, 7:38 a.m.
A risk-off tone swept through markets after FOMC Minutes from the July meeting signaled a fear across committee members that further rate hikes could be necessary. This brought added pressure to a very weak Treasury complex, and the 10-year yield hit a high of 4.312%, the highest since 4.335% on October 22nd. The selling began dissipating overnight upon supportive comments from the People’s Bank of China that were reiterated this morning. In summary, policy will be forceful, and they will keep the Yuan rate stable. This brings us into a critical weekly Jobless Claims read due at 7:30 am CT and will be accompanied by fresh August Philly Fed Manufacturing.
E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4420, down 34.00
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 14,942.25, down 164.25
In the FOMC Minutes aftermath, E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures were slammed into the close. The E-mini S&P traded into major three-star support at 4411.25-4417.50 in the overnight, hitting a low of 4409.50 and the E-mini NQ tested major three-star support at 14,856-14,870 with a low of 14,887. Price action is on the mend heading into U.S. hours after the People’s Bank of China made supportive comments. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and fresh August Philly Fed Manufacturing are due at 7:30 am CT. Also, traders should keep a close eye on Synopsys. The EDA (electronic design automation) company which has contracts with all the big chipmakers, such as NVDA and INTL, topped earnings estimates after the bell yesterday and raised guidance. We believe the company’s last quarterly report on May 17th helped lift major indices out of a rising consolidation pattern, signaling the underlying strength within the chip space and a precursor to NVDA’s blowout report.
Was yesterday’s flush enough? The reception within the first hour will be crucial, and a quick snap back is certainly not out of the question. If E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures can get going, major three-star resistances aligning with volume traded and the rollover post-FOMC Minutes at 4454-4459 and 15,141-15,188 will be crucial to clear.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 4432-4434*, 4444.25-4447**, 4454-4459***, 4465.50-4469***
Support: 4417.50-4420***, 4409.50-4411.25***, 4370.25***
NQ (Sept)
Resistance: 14,983**, 15,020-15,035**, 15,078-15,087***, 15,141-15,188***, 15,259-15,280***
Pivot: 14,942
Support: 14,856-14,870***
Crude Oil (September)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 79.38, down 1.61
Crude Oil futures slipped sharply in the latter part of the session and led a broad risk-off move. Although yesterday’s EIA data was not bearish, it did not bring any fresh bullish surprises. Yes, Crude Oil inventories fell by -5.96 mb, more than the -2.32 expected, and inventories at Cushing surprisingly slipped by -1.763 mb (versus +0.374 mb expected), but Net Imports fell by 12.3 mb w/w after Exports rebounded by 15.7 mb w/w.
Price action nearly tested major three-star support at 78.16-78.69 before rebounding. It is currently trading above our momentum indicator at 79.90, which is supportive. However, major three-star resistance stands at 80.39-80.73, and we must see a close above here in order to begin repairing the damage.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 80.39-80.73***, 81.41-81.89***, 82.43-82.57**
Pivot: 79.90
Support: 78.16-78.69***, 77.07-77.15***
Gold (December) / Silver (September)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled 1928.3, down 6.9
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22.535, down 0.121
Gold and Silver futures are off their worst levels, with Silver actually attempting to stage a rally. Both have been bludgeoned since settlement on July 31st, and there has been no reprieve. This brings us to oversold conditions and a place in which out-of-favor commodities can typically create a countermove. Earlier this morning, the People’s Bank of China made supportive comments, saying that policy will be forceful and they will keep the Yuan rate stable. The Yuan did strengthen after those comments, bringing the tailwind of this rebound from oversold conditions. With the Bond market being the other component to Gold and Silver’s weakness, this brings today’s slate of weekly Initial Jobless Claims and fresh August Philly Fed Manufacturing are due at 7:30 am CT.
It is notable that Silver has been attempting to create a bottom against the March rally point and June low. Furthermore, it did not set a new low yesterday or overnight, like Gold did. If Silver is going to create a true rebound, price action should test the .382 Fib retracement back to the July high and into the thick of the August 7th breakdown at 23.49. We have this major three-star resistance pocket adjusted to 23.28-23.49
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1930.7-1933.2**, 1937.2-1939.2***, 1946.6-1947.2***
Pivot: 1928
Support: 1918.8-1923.3**, 1903.6-1906.9***
Silver (September)
Resistance: 22.89-22.91**, 23.06-23.14**, 23.28-23.49***
Support: 22.55-22.72***, 22.05-22.34***
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