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E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4498, down 23.75

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,354, down 84.75 

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures hit a peak at noon CT, before tumbling precipitously into the close and settling at new cycle lows. Nonfarm Payroll for July was considered by many as a goldilocks report as total job growth was shy of expectations at 187,000 versus 200,000 (again a far cry from ADP’s private survey), whereas wages were hotter than expected at +0.4% m/m and +4.4%, though in line with June’s report. Half of the job gains were Private Education and Health Services, and the recent anchor of Leisure and Hospitality only added 17,000. Risk-assets and Treasuries rallied together through Friday morning before the landscape quickly deteriorated. Is this weakness the start of a fresh leg lower, or is it similar to Friday, July 21st where it was simply profit-taking at the end of the week, before rebounding Monday? Given the U.S. economic calendar is quiet through tomorrow, other than Fed speak early today, the technicals will be crucial. Today, we hear from Philadelphia Fed President Harker, a 2023 voter, Fed Governor Bowman, a permanent voting seat, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, a 2024 voter. CB Employment Trends data is due at 9:00 am CT.

E-mini S&P futures closed right into the bottom of a wide major three-star support at 4493.75, which was the exact high from June 16th. If price action can hold at and above this adjusted level at 4493.75-4498, and furthermore, build construction above 4505.75-4507.50, it could quickly invite fresh tailwinds. This holds similar to major three-star support in the E-mini NQ at 15,311-15,349. Ultimately, continued price action above our Pivot and point of balance, detailed below, will help pave the way for such construction. The bulls must then eat into the thick of Friday’s selling and hold through settlement in order to begin neutralizing Friday’s weakness. However, a heavy tape will likely lead to a test of major three-star support in the E-mini S&P at 4470-4473.50. For now, the broader trend is higher, and a test of the 4493.75 level has been achieved, we will re-establish a cautiously Bullish Bias while out above here.  

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 4518.75-4521.75**, 4532.75**, 4539.25**, 4550.75-4553.75**, 4558.50-4560.75***, 4570.25-4572*** 

Pivot: 4514.25             

Support: 4505.75-4507.50**, 4493.75-4498***, 4470-4473.50***

NQ (Sept)

Resistance: 15,511-15,525**, 15,571-15,610***, 15,684**, 15,789-15,818***

Pivot: 15,392-15,401    

Support: 15,311-15,349***, 15,260***, 15,181***

Crude Oil (September)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 82.82, up 1.27

Crude Oil futures eked out a fresh cycle high overnight, tapping the loftiest level for the September contract since August 30, 2022, before retreating into the onset of U.S. hours. While we remain very optimistic, a quick consolidation at minimum would make a lot of sense, as we trade into the early April peak for the front month contract, and ahead of China Trade Balance data tonight, and China inflation data tomorrow. Saudi Arabia and Russia curtailing production to tighten supply is becoming discounted in the near-term, and overall a consolidation early in the week that reacts to incoming data leading into the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Tuesday, EIA weekly Wednesday, OPEC Monthly Report Thursday, and IEA Monthly on Friday, will be critical.

Look for price action to hold out above the high-volume area correlating with Wednesday and Thursday and defined as major three-star support at 81.01-81.27, in order to keep the bulls in the driver’s seat across all timeframes. 

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 82.75-82.82**, 83.30-83.53***

Pivot: 82.50                

Support: 81.51-81.77**, 81.01-81.27***, 80.39-80.70**, 79.92**, 79.46-79.55***

Gold (December) / Silver (September)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1976.1, up 7.3

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.716, up 0.019

Gold and Silver futures responded very well to Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report, as the data again diverged tremendously from the private ADP survey. Remember, although awfully incorrect, markets have continued to respond to the ADP report. Despite the rebound though, both Gold and Silver are still well below where they were trading upon the ADP release at 1985 and 25.40. As the week gets underway, the U.S. Treasury complex is front and center. Can the 30-year Bond market continue its path from Friday? If so, this will bring great support to the precious metals complex. Additionally, how does the Chinese Yuan and thus the USDCNH react to the deluge of Chinese economic data over the coming days? This all leads into U.S. CPI Thursday.

Gold and Silver futures retreated into this morning and have so far held the pre-NFP print as support. Price action must continue to hold out above these levels defined as the first major three-star support in order to build some construction. However, Friday’s rally quickly stalled, and this creates overhead supply to start the week. For now, we see value while holding above these first supports and will re-establish a cautiously Bullish Bias.  

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 1976.1-1978.8**, 1981.9-1984.2***, 1992.1-1993.7***

Pivot: 1973.5    

Support: 1966.2-1968.8***, 1964.5*, 1960.3**. 1947.2-1954.1***, 1938-1939.2****

Silver (September)

Resistance: 23.81**, 23.90-23.94***, 24.18**, 24.27-24.39***

Pivot: 23.60

Support: 23.42-23.49***, 23.28***, 22.89***

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