Managing the Post-Fed Data Dump
Posted: July 27, 2023, 8:02 a.m.
E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4595.25, down 0.75
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,610.75, down 62.25
The Federal Reserve raised rates yesterday by 25bps as expected. Fed Chair Powell controlled the press conference perfectly, reiterating the committee’s data dependence going forward. He added that some committee members do see rate cuts as early as next year. However, for now, the CME Fed Watch Tool signals a 20% probability the Fed will hike rates 25bps at its next meeting September 20th.
Following the Fed, E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures closed quietly within a sizable range before META crushed earnings estimates with 11% y/y revenue growth and increased guidance. The announcement lifted indices, carrying them higher overnight and into today’s deluge of news. The ECB announces a policy decision at 7:15 am CT and is expected to hike rates by 25bps. ECB president Lagarde will hold a press conference at 7:45 am CT. From the U.S., the first look at Q2 GDP is due at 7:30 am CT, along with weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Durable Goods. Pending Home Sales are due at 9:00 am CT, and the Treasury will auction $35 billion 7-year Notes at noon CT.
We continue to hold our more Bullish Bias as E-mini S&P futures have broken out above major three-star resistance at 4606-4609.25, though we want to see this secured on the weekly close tomorrow. We have had key resistance at 4625.50-4631, which price action is testing into this morning. The E-mini NQ has cleared its hurdle at the 15,710-15,739 mark, which now stands as major three-star support. However, strong resistance is aligning with the opening bell range the morning after TSLA reported and the gap from the close before TSLA earnings. To the downside, we have rare major four-star support in each at yesterday’s settlement, as it could be devastating to the rally if these levels were surrendered.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 4625.50-4631**, 4554.75**, 4667.75-4671.75***
Support: 4606-4609.25***, 4595.25****, 4585**, 4573.75-4579.50***, 4560.50-4565.75***
NQ (Sept)
Resistance: 15,856-15,895***, 15,959-16,009****
Pivot: 15,785
Support: 15,710-15,739***, 15,646**, 15,610****, 15,558-15,566**, 15,519***, 15,444-15,475****
Crude Oil (September)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 78.78, down 0.85
Crude Oil future are again eyeing the $80 mark. Despite a somewhat bearish inventory report yesterday, where draws were smaller across the board and highlighted by -11.09 mb of Net Imports w/w, price action is on the rebound today after reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia may look to further production cuts to underpin prices.
Yesterday’s weakness in Crude Oil futures held out above first key support and battled at our Pivot and point of balance in an extremely constructive manner, setting the tape up for today’s rebound. Continued price action above our new Pivot and point of balance at 79.14-79.28 will keep momentum in the hands of the bulls.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 79.63-79.90***, 80.39-80.70***, 82.52-82.71***
Pivot: 79.14-79.28
Support: 78.55-78.78**, 78.14-78.32**, 77.07-77.37***
Gold (December) / Silver (September)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2009.5, up 6.7
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24.97, up 0.146
December Gold is now front month. Gold and Silver futures climbed higher in the Fed aftermath and through the overnight. However, Gold futures are retreating a bit from an overnight peak of 2022.1, while Silver is holding out above previous major three-star resistance, now our Pivot and point of balance at 25.07-25.11. Similarly, Gold is now battling at its Pivot and point of balance at 2012. These levels must hold in order to keep feeding bullish momentum for a decisive breakout. However, a deluge of economic data lurks ahead. The ECB announces a policy decision at 7:15 am CT and is expected to hike rates by 25bps. ECB president Lagarde will then hold a press conference beginning at 7:45 am CT. From the U.S., the first look at Q2 GDP is due at 7:30 am CT, along with weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Durable Goods. Pending Home Sales are then due at 9:00 am CT, and the Treasury will auction $35 billion 7-year Notes at noon CT.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 2019.6**, 2027-2028.6***, 2034.5***, 2038.9-2043.2**, 2056.9***
Pivot: 2012
Support: 2001-2002.8***, 1994.5-1995.1***, 1990.6**, 1983.9-1987.9***, 1973.3-1975.8***
Silver (September)
Resistance: 25.23-25.30**, 25.46-25.53**, 25.76-25.88***
Pivot: 25.07-25.11***
Support: 24.97***, 24.82-24.87**, 24.65-24.69***, 24.51-24.58***, 24.27-24.39***
In case you haven't already, you can sign up for a complimentary 2-week trial of our complete research packet, Blue Line Express.
Sign up for a Free Trial
Start Trading with Blue Line Futures
Don't have an account with Blue Line Futures?
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.
With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500
Like this post? Share it below:
Back to Insights
In case you haven't already, you can sign up for a complimentary 2-week trial of our complete research packet, Blue Line Express.
Free Trial