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E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 4564.75, down 0.75 on Friday and up 28.00 on the week

NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 15,540.00, down 52.25 on Friday and 154.25 on the week 

With a new week underway, remind yourself that E-mini S&P futures finished in the positive last week. Yes, it is a different story for E-mini NQ futures, but they were not even down one whole percent (-0.98%). Also, E-mini Dow futures finished +2.08%, and E-mini Russell 2000 futures +1.41%. Although the stock market broadly exhibited some signs of exhaustion, this simply appears to be a rotation for now. Bill Baruch joined CNBC’s Halftime Report on Thursday to talk about trimming tech and adding to healthcare and small caps.

Flash PMIs for July began overnight, with the Eurozone and U.K. each missing on both Manufacturing and Services. The U.S. print is due at 8:45 am CT. While the week builds into Wednesday’s FOMC decision, where a 25 bps rate hike is a foregone conclusion, traders must keep a pulse on a deluge of Treasury issuance; $42 billion 2-year Notes are set to be auctioned today, $43 billion 5-years tomorrow, and $34 billion 7-years on Thursday. Additionally, there are increasing geopolitical risks after Russia destroyed Ukrainian grain warehouses on the Danube River.

Despite the retreat into Friday’s close, E-mini S&P futures have yet to decisively break and close below major three-star support at 4560.50-4565.75; we will remain more Bullish in Bias until a close below here, at the least. Furthermore, if such were to happen, it does not mean the market is guaranteed to roll over, as we have several levels of strong support below this mark, and most importantly, the E-mini NQ has rare major four-star support at 15,444-15,475. To the upside, a gap in the E-mini S&P from Wednesday’s close aligns to bring major three-star resistance at 4594.25-4597, and a close above here will invite significant buying.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 4579.50-4580**, 4583.50-4584**, 4588.75-4590.75**, 4594.25-4597***, 4606-4609.25***, 4625.50-4631**

Pivot: 4570          

Support: 4560.50-4565.75***, 4541.75-4545.25***, 4531-4536.75**

NQ (Sept)

Resistance: 15,642-15,654**, 15,719-15,733***, 15,772-15,793**, 15,856-15,895***

Pivot: 15,584-15,592    

Support: 15,522-15,552**, 15,444-15,475****, 15,254-15,260***

Crude Oil (September)

Last week’s close: Settled at 77.07, up 1.42 on Friday and 1.75 on the week

Crude Oil futures gained 1.88% on Friday and hit a three-month high. While Saudi Arabia’s self-imposed production cuts and the White House’s plans to restock the SPR have helped underpin this rally, hopes of Chinese stimulus and increasing geopolitical tensions with Russia have brought additional tailwinds in recent sessions. On Friday, a Bloomberg article highlighted China’s support for the renovation of “urban villages,” and overnight, Russia destroyed Ukrainian grain warehouses on the Danube River. This morning China’s Politburo spoke of inadequate demand and plans to boost car and electronic consumption.

While the newsfeed has supported this bull leg, technical tailwinds are also front and center. Crude Oil futures closed Friday at major three-star resistance at 77.15-77.37, a three-month high, and the momentum out above the $75 breakout point begins to invite fresh speculation. Going back to July 2022, the Crude Oil futures Managed Money Net-Long position has not exceeded 200,000 contracts. From mid-2020 through mid-2021, Managed Money held between 260,000 and a peak of 400,000 contracts. As of last week, the Managed Money Net-Long position also hit a three-month high but remains extremely low at 161,921; there is room for buyers.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 76.87**, 77.15-77.37***, 77.72-78.10**, 80.00-80.39***

Pivot: 76.00                   

Support: 75.65-75.69**, 75.10-75.32***, 74.68-74.85**, 73.37-73.78***

Gold (August) / Silver (September)

Gold, last week’s close: Settled at 1966.6, down 4.3 on Friday and up 2.2 on the week

Silver, last week’s close: Settled 24.855, down 0.107 on Friday and 0.339 on the week

Gold is battling to hold out above a wave of key supports to which it responded late last week, but as Treasury prices slip from early morning highs, it is susceptible to a weaker tape. Treasuries were firm on the poor PMI data from the Eurozone and the U.K. and geopolitical risks with Russia. Silver futures are a different story, down 1% on the session after failing to hold above $25 Friday morning. Silver has increasingly traded to both precious metals and industrial characteristics, Bill Baruch joined the CME Group to give the two main narratives he is watching for on Silver.

While the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision looms Wednesday, a deluge of Treasury supply also poses a headwind to Gold and Silver. The U.S. Treasury will auction $42 billion in 2-year Notes today, $43 billion 5-years tomorrow, and $34 billion 7-years on Thursday.

Gold must close back above major three-star resistance at 1970.2-1971.2 and Silver back above 24.99-25.11 in order to neutralize this wave of selling.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 1970.2-1971.2***, 1974*, 1977.5-1980.8****, 2000.7-2001.4***

Pivot: 1965

Support: 1961.2-1963.6**, 1956.4-1558.9**, 1949-1949.6***

Silver (September)

Resistance: 24.99-25.11***, 25.23**, 25.46-25.53**, 25.76-25.88***

Pivot: 24.72-24.83***                    

Support: 24.66**, 24.51***, 24.27-24.39***

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