The Line Defining the Breakout
Posted: July 20, 2023, 8:54 a.m.
E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4597.00, up 9.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,959.25, down 15.50
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures settled in overnight after TSLA and NFLX earnings underwhelmed. In the case of TSLA, expectations had mounted for a blowout quarter and although the company topped forecasts, the market is not happy with the margin compression. As for NFLX, they missed revenues. The stocks are down 4% and 5%, respectively. Overnight, TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor) topped estimates, but profits dropped for the first time in four years on weaker electronics demand. However, from the U.S., JNJ and ABT both beat and are trading firmly premarket.
All things considered, E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are holding very well. In fact, the E-mini Russell 2000 and E-mini Dow are lingering in positive territory ahead of the bell. Furthermore, the E-mini Russell 2000 is at a critical breakout point against trend line resistance across the August and July peaks. A break above here should pave a path of least resistance to rare major four-star resistance at 2033-2050. As for the E-mini S&P, it is consolidating within the thick of the range after Tuesday’s midday rally. However, a continued softness will open the door for a direct test of major three-star support at 4560.50-4565.75.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 4597***, 4606-4609.25***, 4625.50-4631**
Pivot: 4588.75-4590
Support: 4579.50**, 4560.50-4565.75***, 4541.75-4545.25***, 4531-4536.75**
NQ (Sept)
Resistance: 15,939**, 15,959-15,979***, 16,009-16,062***, 16,275***
Pivot: 15,857-15,889
Support: 15,772**, 15,694-15,733***, 15,621**, 15,552**, 15,444-15,475****
Crude Oil (September)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 75.29, down 0.37
Crude Oil futures reversed sharply yesterday after the weekly EIA inventory data. The report highlighted less of a draw than expected in both Crude Oil and Gasoline stockpiles, coupled with a drop in Net Imports. Price action now finds itself testing major three-star support at 75.10-75.32, a critical battleground defining the imminence of this rally. However, a break below here does not secure a failure as we have multiple waves of support highlighted below in which the bulls must defend.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 77.15-77.37***, 77.72-78.10**, 80.00-80.39***
Pivot: 76.00
Support: 75.10-75.32***, 74.68-74.85**, 73.37-73.78***
Gold (August) / Silver (September)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1980.8, up 0.0
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled 25.387, up 0.131
Gold and Silver futures continue to show life but have struggled to extend gains over the last two sessions. This comes as the U.S. Dollar Index strengthens by 1% from Tuesday’s early low and the Treasury rally is showing signs of running out of steam in the near-term. Both headwinds are finding ammo this morning as Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 228k versus 242k expected, although Philly Fed Manufacturing missed at -13.5 versus -10.0. Existing Home Sales are due at 9:00 am CT.
Gold futures have poked their head above rare major four-star resistance at 1977.6-1980.8 multiple times, even trading to a high of 1989.8 overnight, but have struggled to secure a settlement above this mark. With price action peeling back this morning, it must hold out above 1971.2 in order to keep the bull-flag breakout alive in the immediate-term. Similarly, we do not want to see Silver surrender budding support at first and second key support, two shelves that have developed over the last few sessions.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1977.6-1980.8****, 2000.7-2001.4***
Support: 1971.2***, 1961.2-1963.6**, 1956.4-1558.9**, 1949-1949.6***
Silver (September)
Resistance: 25.46-25.53**, 25.76-25.88***
Support: 25.22-25.25*, 25.10-25.14**, 24.97**, 24.72-24.83***, 24.66**, 24.39-24.51***
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