Markets in the Lead

E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4587.75, up 34.00

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,974.75, up 134.00 

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures closed at new cycle highs yesterday, achieving the highest settlement since March 31, 2022, and January 5, 2022, respectively. Economic data and earnings could certainly pose headwinds, but it is inarguable this bull market trend remains strong. The housing market has been extremely resilient all year, and the latest data will be watched closely over the next two days. Today, Housing Starts for June fell by -8.0%. This comes after May data, released on June 20th, surged by a massive 21.7% when -0.8% was expected. They further revised that read to +15.7. Also, Building Permits fell by -3.7%. A softening housing market will certainly allow the Federal Reserve to breathe a sigh of relief. After the bell, we look to earnings from TSLA and NFLX.

The bulls will attempt to build a fresh floor across the spike highs going back to Friday. This will be major three-star support at 4560.50-4565.75 in the E-mini S&P and key support at 15,857-15,889 in the E-mini NQ. Above here, the path of least resistance is higher across all timeframes, and we remain outright Bullish in Bias.

Bias: Bullish

Resistance: 4603-4606***, 4625.50-4631**

Pivot: 4585-4588.75             

Support: 4579.50**, 4560.50-4565.75***, 4541.75-4545.25***, 4531-4536.75**

NQ (Sept)

Resistance: 15,979-16,009***, 16,275***

Pivot: 15,818

Support: 15,857-15,889**, 15,772**, 15,694-15,733***

Crude Oil (August)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 75.66, up 1.58

Crude Oil futures settled back above the breakout point at 75.10-75.32 yesterday and are now trading with a $76 handle at the onset of U.S. hours. The September contract is now the front month. Weekly EIA inventory data is due at 9:30 am CT and expectations are for -2.44 mb Crude, -1.577 mb Gasoline, and +0.46 mb Distillates.

The breakout point remains 75.10-75.32 in the September contract, as Friday’s settlement was 75.32. Monday’s spike high was 76.00, which will stand as our Pivot and point of balance; above here, the bulls are handily in the driver’s seat.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 77.15-77.37***, 77.72-78.10**, 80.00-80.39***

Pivot: 76.00                 

Support: 75.10-75.32***, 74.68-74.85**, 73.37-73.78***

Gold (August) / Silver (September)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1980.8, up 24.4

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled 25.256, up 0.238

Gold broke out of a bull flag consolidation yesterday and played catch-up to Silver’s surge. Also, Housing Starts -8.0% and Building Permits -3.7% should be an added tailwind to an already buoyant tape. However, the U.S. Dollar remains strong and broadly higher against currencies around the globe and trading at a seven-session high against the Chinese Yuan, which will act as a direct headwind to the entire metals complex.

Gold and Silver futures poked above critical areas of technical resistance yesterday, but have settled in. We must see buyers respond to keep the tape out above resistance at the 1977.6-1980.8 pocket in Gold and the 25.22-25.25 level in Silver.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 1977.6-1980.8****, 2000.7-2001.4***

Support: 1971.2***, 1961.2-1963.6**, 1956.4-1558.9**, 1949-1949.6***

Silver (September)

Resistance: 25.22-25.25***, 25.76-25.88***                     

Support: 25.10-25.14**, 24.97**, 24.72-24.83**, 24.66**, 24.39-24.51***, 24.06-24.15***