Will the USDA Lower Corn Yield in Today's Report?
Posted: July 12, 2023, 7:14 a.m.
6-10 Day Weather OutlookThe most recent 6-10 day outlook shows near normal temperatures for much of the Cornbelt with above average precipitation. |
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USDA Report (Average) EstimatesCorn Yield: 176.6 Production: 15.234 billion bushels Soybeans Yield: 51.4 Production: 4.253 billion bushels The Great Debate The big debate ahead of today's report is whether the USDA will drop the corn yield. I don’t think there’s much debate around if they should, as I think most folks are in the camp (and rightfully so) that this year’s crop will be below trendline. I think the bigger debate is will they. The last time the USDA lowered corn yield in the July report was 2012. With that in mind, I think it’s important to temper the expectations when it comes to the USDA significantly lowering yield in today's report. |
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CornTechnicals (December)The consolidation in corn futures prices continues into the seventh consecutive session as market participants gear up for yet another USDA report. We continue to have a slightly bullish short-term bias, a break and close below our support pocket from 485-490 would neutralize that. On the resistance side, the Bulls want to see a close out above last week's highs from 508-510. If they can achieve that we could see the market attempt to retest the breakdown point from the June 30th acreage report, that comes in near 520. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 518-525 3/4***, 540 1/2-545 ** Pivot: 506-510 Support: 485-490***, 476**, 460-465**** |
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Soybeans |
Technicals (November)November soybean futures have a bit of a hot streak going this week, with futures trading higher yet again. Prices are now approaching the top end of the recent range. If the Bulls can get over that hurdle, it could open the door for an extension towards the more significant resistance levels which come in near the psychologically significant $14.00 level. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 1390-1400***, 1427 3/4*** Pivot: 1340-1350 Support: 1324-1332 3/4**, 1291-1300*** |
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WheatTechnicals (September) Chicago September wheat futures has a strong session yesterday but have been unable to find any follow-through in the overnight and early morning trade. Prices are trading back into our pivot pocket from 654-661. The Bulls will want to defend this on a closing basis to keep the hopes of a bigger rally alive. A failure to do so could keep prices rangebound with the potential for a pullback to 636-639. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 676-680****, 694-700*** Pivot: 654-661 Support: 636-639***, 623-625*** |
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