Grain Futures Rally Ahead of Tomorrow's USDA Report
Posted: July 11, 2023, 8 a.m.
6-10 Day Weather OutlookThe most recent 6-10 day outlook shows near normal temperatures for much of the Cornbelt with above average precipitation. |
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Crop Progress SnapshotCorn: 55% Good/Excellent, +4% from last week. Notable: A 13% improvement in Nebraska, now 62% G/E vs 49% LW. Soybeans: 51% G/E, +1% from LW. Notable: Illinois saw a 6% improvement while Iowa saw a 1% decline. Spring Wheat: 47% G/E, -1% from LW. Winter Wheat: 46% harvested. Weekly Export InspectionsCorn: 341,024 metric tons (13,425,518 bushels). Below the low end of expectations. Soybeans: 238,234 metric tons (8,753,598 bushels). Within the range of expectations. Wheat: 419,134 metric tons (15,400,533 bushels). Above the high end of expectations. USDA Report (Average) EstimatesCorn Yield: 176.6 Production: 15.234 billion bushels Soybeans Yield: 51.4 Production: 4.253 billion bushels |
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CornTechnicals (December)December corn futures are working higher in the early morning trade but are largely still in consolidation mode ahead of tomorrow's WASDE report. That keeps our near term technical outlook unchanged from yesterday's report. Our short-term bias remains Neutral/Bullish, aka cautiously optimistic. If the Bulls can chew through and close out above 505-511, we would likely move our bias deeper into bullish territory with the next objective being near 520. On the support side of things, 485-490 is the pocket we are watching. A break and close below here would Neutralize our bias. Keep in mind that there is a WASDE report out on Wednesday, July 12th. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 518-525 3/4***, 540 1/2-545 ** Pivot: 505-511 Support: 485-490***, 476**, 460-465**** |
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Soybeans |
Technicals (November)November soybean futures were able to close back above the 200-day moving average yesterday which has led to some follow-through buying in the overnight and early morning trade. If the Bulls can defend this strength through today's trade we could see an extension to the top end of the recent range, 1390-1400. The Bulls will want to defend our pivot pocket from 1340-1350 to remain in the driver's seat. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1390-1400***, 1427 3/4*** Pivot: 1340-1350 Support: 1324-1332 3/4**, 1291-1300*** |
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WheatTechnicals (September) Wheat futures are finding their footing this morning, but the Bulls are likely a bit skeptical as many of the recent rallies have been short lived. The early morning strength has taken prices into our pivot pocket, 654-661. If the Bulls can chew through and close above this pocket, that could spark a retest of the more significant resistance pocket, 676-680. A close above there is what the Bulls want/need to see. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 676-680****, 694-700*** Pivot: 654-661 Support: 636-639***, 623-625*** |
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