Morning Express
Posted: June 26, 2023, 8:15 a.m.
Our daily research overs the S&P, NQ, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Currencies, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Livestock, and Softs markets.
Went out to brokerage clients before the bell
E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 4389, down 34.75 on Friday and 64.75 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 15,058.25, down 156.50 on Friday and 209.75 on the week
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished sharply lower on Friday. Heavy selling kicked in early in the session after an ugly flash PMI miss from the Eurozone, led by German Manufacturing contracting at 41.0, the worst since June 2020. Despite the ugly close, all was not lost last week, strength on Thursday showed leadership from both tech and niche industrials. In fact, the E-mini NQ nearly pared all of the week’s losses into Thursday’s close. However, Manufacturing PMIs also missed in the U.S. at 46.3, and this became a dramatic headwind to cyclicals (those industrials). Given last week’s digestion of the run, the E-mini S&P was -1.45% last week though still +4.6% on the month, and strong seasonality that begins tomorrow, the E-mini S&P is up 15 out of the last 15 years from June 27th to July 23rd averaging 73 points, we will reintroduce a cautiously Bullish Bias (we entered last week Neutral). Price action has responded to major three-star support at...
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Crude Oil (August)
Last week’s close: Settled at 69.16, down 0.35 on Friday and 2.77 on the week
Crude Oil futures finished -3.85% last week and were slammed on Thursday from majo three-star resistance. The market reacted negatively to what appeared to be a bullish EIA inventory report, however, the data was underpinned by Net Imports falling 10.45 mb. Price action slipped lower through the poor Manufacturing PMI reports, but has found some footing in front of major three-star support at...
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Gold (August) / Silver (July)
Gold, last week’s close: Settled at 1929.6, up 5.9 on Friday and down 41.6 on the week
Silver, last week’s close: Settled at 22.354, down 0.113 on Friday and 1.772 on the week
Gold and Silver futures were bludgeoned last week, and are trying to start this one off on the right foot. Geopolitical uncertainties out of Russia helped encourage a decent start to the overnight session. The tape has been able to cling to the positive start, highlighted by Silver trading out above Friday’s spike failure of 22.71. We are upbeat for a rebound into midweek, but holding onto such will be critical. For now, it is imperative that each Gold and Silver hold out above first supports that align with Friday’s settlement. However, it is equally critical that they also hold above our Pivot and point of balance at...
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Silver (July)
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