How High Can Grain Futures Prices Go?
Posted: June 13, 2023, 7:42 a.m.
Crop Progress Snapshot
Corn
- Emerged: 93%, 6% ahead of last year's pace.
- Good/Excellent: 61%, a 3% drop from last week and 1% below the average of estimates. The 5-year average for this week is 70% G/E.
- Illinois continues to be a cause for concern with G/E ratings dipping below 50%, currently at 48%. Indiana saw a 7% decline with ratings now at 55% G/E.
Soybeans
- Emerged: 86%, 18% ahead of last year's pace.
- Good/Excellent: 59%, a 3% drop from last week and 1% below the average of estimates. Last year at this time the crop was rated 70% G/E.
- As with corn, Illinois is being monitored closely, with G/E ratings now at 47%.
Corn
Technicals (July)July corn futures pressed higher in yesterday's trade and that has so far spilled into strength in the overnight and early morning trade. The market has/is testing our first resistance pocket, 622 1/4-623 3/4. If the market can get out above this pocket, we could see the momentum carry prices to 631-634. On the support side of things, the Bulls will want to defend 615 3/4. A break and close below this level could mute the technical strength that we've seen recently and may even trigger profit taking and selling pressure. Our short-term bias remains Neutral as we believe there will continue to be great intraday opportunities for market participants on both sides of the market.
Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 622 1/4-623 3/4***, 631-634**** Pivot:615 3/4** Support: 606-608*** 591 1/2**, 577-581*** |
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Technicals (December)July futures has been outperforming December futures over the last few weeks, but yesterday December futures managed to finally make new highs for the month and is now within arm's length of the 100-day moving average, 556 3/4. Above that is a more significant resistance pocket that covers the mid 560's. This represents trendline resistance from the highs that were made in April 2022. Though weather trumps pretty much everything right now, we think it would be prudent to consider protecting price from these levels. We've been utilizing short dated options for clients who feel the same. Our short-term bias remains Neutral as we believe there will continue to be great intraday opportunities for market participants on both sides of the market.
Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 556 3/4**, 562-568**** Pivot: 543 1/4 Support: 530 1/2-536 3/4**** |
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Soybeans
Technicals (July)July soybean futures tested and failed against the breakdown point from May 16th, in yesterday's trade. But this morning, prices are giving it another go. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket with some conviction, we could see it encourage additional technical buying, with the next upside target for the Bulls being 1401-1411. As with our bias in the corn section, our short-term bias remains Neutral as we believe there will continue to be great intraday opportunities for market participants on both sides of the market.
Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1388-1392 3/4***, 1401-1411*** Pivot: 1368 Support: 1345-1350***, 1299-1310*** |
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Technicals (November)About two weeks ago we were on AgDay TV discussing the significance of the 1220 level and how the market would still be in a technical downtrend until we see a close above it. This area represents trendline resistance from the February highs, as you can see from the chart below. We also have a bit of an inverse head and shoulders forming. A breakout above resistance could spark a bigger move to the upside. With that said, this market will be hinging on weather forecasts, so technicals may have less significance than they might during a time where news headlines are slow. Our short-term bias remains Neutral as we believe there will continue to be great intraday opportunities for market participants on both sides of the market.
Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1220-1227****, 1244 1/2*** Pivot: 1195-1202 1/2 Support: 1167-1172*** |
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