Morning Express
Posted: June 13, 2023, 7:31 a.m.
Our daily research overs the S&P, NQ, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Currencies, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Livestock, and Softs markets.
Went out to brokerage clients before the bell
- The May CPI report is due at 7:30 am CT, expectations are for:
- Headline CPI +0.2% m/m, softening from +0.4% in April, and +4.1 y/y, down from 4.9%.
- Core CPI, excluding food and energy, at +0.4% m/m, flat from April, and +5.3% y/y, down from +5.5%
- The Cleveland Fed forecast is in line with analysts.
- These expectations signal food and energy retreated, but other pockets such as services and rents are likely to remain elevated.
- How does the Federal Reserve digests today’s report?
- The Fed’s policy decision is due tomorrow at 1:00 pm CT, with economic projections and followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference.
- According to the CME, there is currently a 24.3% probability the Fed hikes 25bps tomorrow, and a 72.7% probability they hike at least 25bps by July.
- China surprises with cut.
- The PBOC lowered its seven-day reverse repurchase rate by 10bps and ignites speculation more is to come.
- New Loans data this morning was soft at 1.360 trillion yuan versus 1.6 trillion expected.
- U.S. Treasury deluge continues, it will auction $18 billion 30-year Bonds with $38 billion 52-week bills.
- OPEC+ Monthly Report is lifting Crude Oil
- OPEC+ output fell by 464,000 bpd in May, to 28.06 mbpd, led by Saudi Arabia cutting 519,000 bpd
- Raises U.S growth forecast to 1.3% from 1.2% and keeps China unchanged at 5.2%
- Left 2023 Oil demand forecast unchanged at 2.3 mbpd.
E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4388.00, up 39.25
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 14,986.75, up 251.00
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Crude Oil (July)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 67.12, down 3.05
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Gold (August) / Silver (July)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1969.7, down 7.5
Silver, yesterday's close: Settled at 24.059, down 0.351
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Silver (July)
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