Morning Express

Posted: June 12, 2023, 8:44 a.m.

Our daily research overs the S&P, NQ, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Currencies, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Livestock, and Softs markets.

Went out to brokerage clients before the bell

The biggest macro week of the year gets underway.

The U.S. Treasury begins a deluge of issuance, auctioning both $40 billion 3-year Notes and $32 billion 10-year Notes today, Monday, as well as $123 billion 13- and 26-week bills. Tomorrow, it will auction $18 billion 30-year Bonds with $38 billion 52-week bills.
New Loans data from China is showing a tentative release tomorrow morning at 3:00 am CT. This is a commodity market mover, if it is actually released then.
CPI data for May will be released tomorrow, Tuesday, at 7:30 am CT. We will cover expectations for the report on today’s Midday market Minute and tomorrow’s Morning Express, but check out our tweet thread yesterday giving some backdrop: https://twitter.com/bill_baruch/status/1667875948329418754.
PPI data for May is released Wednesday morning at 7:30 am CT, remember, producer prices are a leading indicator of consumer prices.
Fed Day Wednesday, the bank’s policy decision is due at 1:00 pm CT along with quarterly economic projections, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 1:30.
A deluge of economic indicators from China are due to be released Wednesday at 9:00 pm CT, including Industrial Production and Fixed-Asset Investment.
The European Central Bank holds a policy meeting Thursday and concludes with a decision at 7:15 am CT, followed by a press conference from ECB President Lagarde at 7:45 am CT.
From the U.S. on Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims, Retail Sales and Import/Export Price Index for May, as well as fresh NY Empire State Manufacturing and Philly Fed Manufacturing for June, all at 7:30 am CT. Industrial Production is due at 8:15 am CT.
On Friday, Eurozone CPI is due at 4:00 am CT, and fresh Michigan Consumer data from the U.S. is out at 9:00 am CT, which includes inflation expectations.
Quadruple Witching is Friday, all E-mini index futures and options expire at 8:30 am CT (we begin using the new front-month September on Tuesday).

E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 4304.75, up 6.50 on Friday and 16.75 on the week

NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 14,556.25, up 53.25 on Friday and down 19.00 on the week

Amid the macro-packed week, it is also roll week. We always begin using the new front-month futures on Tuesday, in this case it is September. On Friday, June E-mini S&P futures hit a fresh cycle high of 4325 through the first hour after the opening bell before backing off to unchanged and levitating slightly into the close. For both the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ, those early Friday highs align closely with already established resistance levels and now become a line in the sand for a potential technical breakout, though tomorrow’s CPI and Wednesday’s Fed lurk fundamentally. As the session unfolds, we will look for first supports to hold and invite upward pressures, major three-star levels for both the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ at...

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