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Grain Futures Prices Continue to Slide | Grain Express | 5/31/2023 |

Posted: May 31, 2023, 8:26 a.m.

Morning Headlines

China

  • Poor economic data out of China has many commodities in a risk-off mode.  Many analysts were looking for a blossoming recovery, but those hopes are falling flat.  
  • The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to a five-month low of 48.8, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Wednesday, down from 49.2 in April and below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction. The PMI also dashed forecasts for an increase to 49.4. -Reuters

Crop Progress 

  • Corn: 92% planted, 8% ahead of the 5-year average. 72% of the crop is emerged with 69% having a good/excellent rating.  That G/E % is down 4% from this time last year. 
  • Soybeans:  83% planted, 18% ahead of the 5-year average pace.  56% of the crop is emerged.

Corn

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • September corn futures have trended lower for 12 of the last 15 years from 4/30-6/24. 

 

Technicals (July)

  • July corn futures failed against resistance yesterday which led to profit taking on the back of last week's 5-day rally.  That pressure has carried over into the early morning trade.  It's not just corn that is under pressure though, it's commodities in general, we are attributing that to very poor economic data out of China.  In yesterday's report we noted that a failure to take out Friday's high would likely move our bias into Bearish territory and that "A failure to defend 595-601 could lead to technical correction back to 586-588.".  The Bears have achieved that first target in the early morning trade with their next objective coming in from 569-572.

 

Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance:  595-601***, 606-608***, 615 3/4**

Pivot: 586-588 

Support: 569-572***
ZCN2023_2023-05-31_07-27-59

 

 

Soybeans 

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • The next Seasonal Trend for soybeans is for the July contract and starts on May 28th.

 

Technicals (July)

  • Yesterday morning we defined "MUST HOLD" support as 1299-1310.  That will now act as a significant resistance pocket for the market.  The next support pocket comes in from 1265-1270, this comes from previous support pack in January of 2022.  Below that and there's not a lot of previous interaction to go off.  The lows from the Autumn of 2022 come in about $1 lower.  We sent out a note yesterday afternoon regarding Fund positioning, if you didn't get a chance to read that, you can follow this link: The Market Giveth and The Market Taketh - Blue Line Futures

 

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 1299-1310****, 1345-1348***

Support:  1265-1270** 
ZSN2023_2023-05-31_07-46-19

 

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 595-601****, 606**, 615 3/4**, 627 1/4***

Pivot: 586-588

Support: 561 3/4**, 541 1/2-550****, 516 1/2** 

Wheat

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • None
ZWN2023_2023-05-31_07-47-40

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