Will Leadership Fade? | Morning Express | 05/30/23 |
Posted: May 30, 2023, 8:47 a.m.
Our daily research overs the S&P, NQ, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Currencies, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Livestock, and Softs markets.
Went out to brokerage clients before the bell
- A debt ceiling deal was reached over the weekend between President Biden and House Speak McCarthy, now the tough job of passing it through Congress begins.
- The pivotal economic calendar this week builds into Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.
- Today, home price data from Case Shiller and OFHEO at 8:00 am CT, CB Consumer Confidence 9:00 am CT (peaked in December at 109.0 and has been trending lower, 101.3 in April, expected at 99.0 for May), and China PMIs tonight at 8:30 pm CT.
- Tomorrow, French, Italian, and German CPI for May across the early slate tomorrow morning before U.S. JOLTs data for April at 9:00 am CT.
- Thursday, U.S. ISM Manufacturing for April highlights the morning at 9:00 am CT. Final PMIs from the Eurozone are released early, U.S. Jobless Claims at 7:30 am CT, and SPGI final U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 8:45 am CT.
- Friday, the April Nonfarm Payrolls report is due at 7:30 am CT.
- Fed speak is scheduled to pick up tomorrow and through the rest of the week but keep an ear to the ground today.
- According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is currently a 59.7% probability the Fed hikes 25bps at its June 14th
E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 4213.25, up 53.50 on Friday and 8.50 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 14,332.50, up 356 on Friday and 474.50 on the week
We remain Bullish in Bias as the trend remains strong. However, we must begin considering whether leadership has run too far too fast. We will keep things simple; continued price action out above our Pivot and point of balance should feed further bullish momentum as the week unfolds. However, sharp pullbacks within a data and headline-driven week are to be expected, and a response to our strong supports is paramount, this begins with the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ at...
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Crude Oil (July)
Last week’s close: Settled at 72.67, up 0.84 on Friday and 0.98 on the week
Crude Oil futures are on their back-foot and retesting a critical area of rare major four-star support at the onset of U.S. hours. Fears of slowing growth and mounting expectations for another interest rate hike are offsetting last week’s bullish inventory tailwinds, but we expect those tailwinds to not dissipate so quickly, and the entire narrative will hit the forefront with the latest China PMI data due tonight at 8:30 pm CT. Price action must regain our Pivot and point of balance at...
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Gold (August) / Silver (July)
Gold, last week’s close: Settled at 1963.1, up 0.8 on Friday and down 37.2 on the week
Silver, last week’s close: Settled at 23.36, up 0.45 on Friday and down 0.70 on the week
Precious metals are attempting to shake off an abysmal two-week stretch. Within a jam-packed economic calendar this week, there still must be a constructive response to technical supports in order to build a base. Last week marked the expiration of June Gold options, and June Gold futures have become untradable. We have noted here before that at times such expirations can bring a cleansing and create two-sided volatility. Gold has turned higher after marking a quick low overnight but must remain responsive at and above our Pivot and point of balance at...
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Silver (July)
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