Can the Breakout Withstand Fed and Debt Ceiling Punches? | Morning Express | 05/22/23 |
Posted: May 22, 2023, 9:11 a.m.
Fed Speak, Debt Ceiling, and China
- Fed Chair Powell took a surprisingly less hawkish tone on Friday, hinting at a pause in hikes, saying that because of banking stress “rates may not need to rise as much as expected,” although inflation is “still too high.” The U.S. Dollar weakened on his comments, though the move came in lockstep with news that debt ceiling talks broke down.
- The Fed is playing the Jekyll and Hyde game, keeping expectations honest.
- St. Louis Fed President Bullard (non-voter in 2023) and Dallas Fed President Logan (2023 voter) have emerged as two hawks, keeping a potential hike in June on the table. They speak at 7:30 and 8:00 am CT this morning.
- Richmond President Barkin, Atlanta President Bostic, and San Francisco Daly, all non-voters in 2023, begin speaking at 9:50 am CT.
- Currently an 18.6% probability the Fed hikes at the June meeting.
- Flash PMIs tomorrow, and the U.S. Treasury will auction 2-yr, 5-yr, and 7-yr tomorrow, Wednesday, and Thursday.
- President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy are scheduled to meet today after talks stalled, however, a positive discussion yesterday.
- U.S. and China commerce officials are scheduled to hold talks this week.
- China banned Micron, citing cybersecurity issues, prohibiting infrastructure operators from buying. The move was somewhat expected in the tit-for-tat back and forth, though Micron is -5% ahead of the bell.
E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 4204.75, down 7.25 on Friday and up 66.75 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 13,858.00, down 36.00 on Friday and up 461.75 on the week
The E-mini NQ gained 3.45% last week and broke out above its August high, where front-month futures peaked at 13,740. Will the momentum carry this week? Despite a bumpy road early Friday after debt ceiling talks broke down, E-mini S&P futures managed to hold ground, digesting a +1.6% week and pinging the highest levels since February 3rd. Both E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures have cleared our Pivot and point of balance, detailed below, ahead of the opening bell; continued price action above here is seen as favorable for a strong session. To the downside, we will continue to hold our more Bullish Bias while price action remains out above major three-star supports in the S&P and NQ at...
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Crude Oil (July)
Last week’s close: Settled at 71.69, down 0.25 on Friday and up 1.67 on the week
We reduced rare major four-star resistance at 73.40-73.80 to a major three-star level given the multiple tests, but the ceiling proved to hold again Friday, batting the tap as low as 70.67 overnight. Price action in Crude futures did hold major three-star support at 70.79-71.05 through Friday’s intraday and is setting up to open today’s intraday above here at 8:00 am CT. Our Pivot and point of balance will be paramount at...
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Gold (June) / Silver (July)
Gold, last week’s close: Settled at 1981.6, up 21.8 on Friday and down 38.2 on the week
Silver, last week’s close: Settled at 24.06, up 0.427 on Friday and down 0.094 on the week
Gold and Silver futures finished a difficult week on a positive note, surging on the one-two punch from Fed Chair Powell’s comments and deadlock in Washington. Still, there is tremendous overhead damage that each must repair before the bullish trend can continue. This will merely begin with a close above major three-star resistance at
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Silver (July)
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