Soybeans Test and Defend Significant Support (for now) | Grain Express | 5/22/2023 |

Posted: May 22, 2023, 7:26 a.m.

Soybean futures had an ugly reversal on Friday which took prices to our 4-star support pocket, 1300-1310.  If this support pocket holds, what kind of relief rally could we see?

Corn

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • September corn futures have trended lower for 12 of the last 15 years from 4/30-6/24. 

Commitment of Traders Update (through 5/16/23)

  • Managed money were net buyers of 17,657 futures/options contracts through May 16th, the bulk of that was new longs (versus short covering).  That shrinks their net short position to 91,985 contracts (171,753 longs VS 263,738 shorts)

 

ZCN2023_2023-05-22_05-42-51

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Soybeans 

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • The next Seasonal Trend for soybeans is for the July contract and starts on May 28th.

Commitment of Traders Update (through 5/16/23)

  • Managed money were net sellers of 24,517 futures/options contracts through May 16th, the bulk of that was new shorts (versus long liquidation).  That shrinks their net long position to just 23,942 contracts (98,465 longs VS 74,523 shorts).  This is the smallest net long position since November 9th, 2021. 

ZSN2023_2023-05-22_05-55-33

Technicals (July)

  • Our 4-star support pocket from 1299-1310 was tested on Friday and has so far held.  As mentioned in last Wednesday's "2-Minute Drill," we like this pocket being a good risk/reward pocket for the Bulls to look long.  A break and close below here would neutralize that bias.  The Bull's will have their work cut out for them, the first major hurdle they need to get over comes in quite a bit higher, 1345-1348.

 

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 1355 3/4-1362 3/4****, 1380-1385****

Pivot: 1345-1348

Support:  1299-1310****

Wheat

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • None

Commitment of Traders Update (through 5/16/23)

  • Managed money were net buyers of 4,136futures/options contracts through May 16th, the bulk of that was new longs (versus short covering).  That puts their net short position at 112,769, broken down that is 62,198 longs VS 174,967 shorts. 
ZWN2023_2023-05-22_06-01-08

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