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Is The Bottom In for Grain Markets? | Grain Express | 5/19/2023
Posted: May 19, 2023, 7:58 a.m.
Is a Tsunami of Bad News Good News?
In yesterday's interview with RFD-TV we talked about how the grain markets have just been bombarded with bearish headlines over the last two weeks, including things like: solid planting progress, friendly weather, dismal demand, the Black Sea Grain Deal extension, a strengthening US Dollar, etc, etc. The culmination of it all may have been yesterday's dreadful export sales report (which didn't come as much of a surprise) which likely triggered the "just get me out" orders at the 8:30am open. Some of which may have been prompted by margin and risk departments, we talked about how this may play a role in the market dynamics in our weekly 2-Minute Drill on Wednesday (watch now!) After a certain point, the bulk of the bearish news is out in the open and the market can take a minute to regroup and catch its breath. That does not mean that long term lows are in (although they could be). As stated in yesterday's interviews, we think that in the short term, the markets can start to rebound from these levels and consolidate into a holding pattern.
Corn
Seasonal Trend in Play
September corn futures have trended lower for 12 of the last 15 years from 4/30-6/24.
Technicals (July)
Corn futures are in positive territory in the early morning trade, with the new crop December contract leading the way, which we are more optimistic on in the near term (Vs July). (If you'd like to discuss December technical levels, shoot Oliver a note -> Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com). Yesterday's low will act as minor support. On the resistance side of things, the Bulls want to chew through yesterday's high, 561 3/4. If they can achieve that, we could see the market recover back to the breakdown point from Wednesday, 569-572. A close above or below that pocket could set the tone for the next move.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 569-572***, 586-588***, 595-601****
Pivot: 561 3/4
Support: 541 1/2-550****, 516 1/2**
Soybeans
Seasonal Trend in Play
The next Seasonal Trend for soybeans is for the July contract and starts on May 28th.
Technicals (July)
In the plethora of bad news yesterday, new crop soybean export sales were decent, which is encouraging for the November contract. As with corn, we favor the new crop contracts in the short term and believe there is upside potential from these levels (If you'd like to discuss November technical levels, shoot Oliver a note -> Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com). First resistance in today's trade comes in at 1348, a move out above there could take us back to what was previously significant support, 1355 3/4-1362 3/4.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1355 3/4-1362 3/4****, 1380-1385****
Pivot: 1348
Support: 1299-1310****
Wheat
Seasonal Trend in Play
None
Technicals (July)
Wheat futures were under pressure yet again in yesterday's trade, testing but holding support against those lows from May 2nd and 3rd. 625 is the first hurdle for the Bull camp to get out above, if they can chew through this area, we could see a swift retracement and retest of the highs from Monday and Tuesday, 663-665
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