The Selling Continues in the Grain Markets. What Gives? | Grain Express | 5/18/2023

Posted: May 18, 2023, 7:49 a.m.

Cancellation of Export Sales to China

  • Private exporters reported the cancellation of sales of 272,000 metric tons (10,708,164 bushels) of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year. 

Black Sea Grain Deal Extended

  • The Ukraine Black Sea grain deal has been extended for two more months, in what U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres hailed as "good news for the world," a day before Russia could have quit the pact over obstacles to its grain and fertiliser exports. -Reuters

Export Sales Estimates

  • Corn: -300,000 to 500,000 metric tons
  • Soybeans: 0 to 300,000 metric tons
  • Wheat: 50,000 to 150,000 metric tons for 2022/2023 & 200,000 to 400,000 for 2023/2024.

Corn

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • September corn futures have trended lower for 12 of the last 15 years from 4/30-6/24. 

 

Technicals (July)

July corn futures got hit hard yesterday following yet another cancelation of exports to China, this time to the tune of about 10.7 million bushels.  That coupled with friendly weather through many top producing growing areas has the Funds pushing the pedal to the meta.  Prices are lower yet again this morning, taking out yesterday's low, which puts us near the lowest levels since the end of 2021.

 

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 586-588***, 595-601****

Pivot: 569-572 

Support: 541 1/2-550****, 516 1/2**

 

ZCN2023_2023-05-18_06-04-58

Soybeans 

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • The next Seasonal Trend for soybeans is for the July contract and starts on May 28th.

 

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Wheat

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • None

 

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