Will The Cattle Rally Continue This Week? | Livestock Rundown | 5/15/2023

Posted: May 15, 2023, 8:14 a.m.

Cattle Summary

Daily Cutout Values

  • Choice: 304.61, Down 1.11 from the previous day.
  • Select: 284.68, Up .10 from the previous day.
  • Choice/Select Spread: 19.93

5 Area Average Cattle Price

  • Live Steer: 173.89
  • Live Heifer: 173.22
  • Dressed Steer: 279.56
  • Dressed Heifer: 278.20

Daily Slaughter

  • Estimated at 124,000. Up 7,000 from last week and 4,000 from the same week last year.

Feeder Cattle Index

  • 05/11/2023: 200.58
  • 05/10/2023: 199.46

Commitment of Traders 

  • Live Cattle: The most recent CoT report showed Managed Money holding a net long position of 95,279 futures/options contracts, down from 107,551 in the previous report.  
  • Feeder Cattle: The most recent CoT report showed Managed Money holding a net long position of 12,366 futures/options, down from 14,587.

Live Cattle

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • The next Seasonal Trend for live cattle is for the October contract and starts on May 25th.  

 

Technicals (June - M)

June live cattle were able to stage a strong rally to end the week, will that carry over into a new week of trade is the big question.  The next big resistance pocket above last week's highs comes in from 165.75-166.275, which represents the contract highs from April.  On the support side, 161.075-161.925 remains intact. 

 

Resistance:  165.75-166.275***

Pivot: 164.00-164.25 

Support: 161.075-161.925***, 159.175-159.75***

LEM2023_2023-05-15_07-16-01

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Feeder Cattle

Seasonal Trend in Play: 

  • None

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Hogs Summary

Daily Direct Hogs Plant Delivered (as of 1:30 PM CT)

Carcass Base Price

Range: 68.00-79.50

Weighted Average: 74.36

Change from Prior Day: -2.95

Head Count: 3,159

CME Lean Hog Index

5/10/2023: 75.40

5/09/2023: 75.07

Commitment of Traders

  • Lean Hogs: The most recent CoT report showed Funds being net sellers of 10,847 futures/options contracts through 5/9/23, expanding their net short position to 17,670.

     

Lean Hogs

  Seasonal Tend in Play

  • December lean hog futures have trended higher from March 30th to June 10th for 12 out of the last 15 years.

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Seasonal Tendencies

  • Below is a look at seasonal tendencies over the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.  Historically, June lean hogs make a good attempt to carve out a low during this time of year. 
HEM23_builder_13803_0_20035

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500


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