| Morning Express | 05/11/23 |
Posted: May 11, 2023, 7:29 a.m.
- The April U.S. PPI report is due at 7:30 am CT, expectations are for:
- Headline at +0.3% m/m, up from a disinflationary -0.5% in March, and +2.4% y/y, down from +2.7%.
- Core at +0.2% m/m, up from a disinflationary -0.1% in March, and +3.3% y/y, down from 3.4%.
- Inflation data from China last night showed deepening disinflationary pressures with CPI at -0.1% m/m and +0.1% y/y, and PPI -3.6%.
- New Loans data from China early this morning missed the mark widely, at 718.8 billion yuan versus 1,402.5 billion yuan expected.
- While disinflation in China opens the door to easier policy measures, the New Loans data is a dent in that narrative.
- The Bank of England hiked rates by 25bps as expected and raised its GDP outlook by the largest revision in MPC’s history.
E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4152.00, down 18.00
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 13,409.50, up 144.75
E-mini NQ futures are attempting a breakout, closing above the previous settlement high of 13,352 from May 8th and traded high of 13,370 on May 1st. This strength was accompanied by a divergence in cyclical stocks. Regardless, all indices fought whipsaw activity post-CPI yesterday for a strong close. We must see price action in the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ hold out above first supports today in order to maintain yesterday’s late tailwind, these levels come in at 4125.50-4132 and 13,329-13,352.
Fundamentals:
Technicals
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Crude Oil (June)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 72.56, down 1.15
Crude Oil has now tested and struggled against our major four-star resistance at 73.47-74.05 for four sessions in a row. Despite this containment, the tape remains constructive out in front of first key support at 71.88. However, price action has surrendered our rising momentum indicator and this could open the door for a test into major three-star support at 71.13-71.34.
Fundamentals:
Technicals:
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Gold (June) / Silver (July)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2037.1, down 5.8
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 25.658, down 0.24
Gold and Silver provided a head fake after yesterday’s CPI report, quickly reversing course and setting new session lows. However, Gold is battling to hold ground this morning, whereas Silver is being pulled by the undertow related to China and the potential of a technical topping pattern. We must see Gold press and hold above first key resistance at 2045.4-2046.2 while Silver must respond to rare major four-star support at 24.75-24.95.
Fundamentals:
Technicals:
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Silver (July)
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