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Crop Progress

• Corn:  49% planted, up from 26% last week.  The range of estimates was wide enough to drive a truck through, from 34%-64%, the average being 48%.  The 5-year average pace is 42%.
• Soybeans: 35% planted, up from 19% last week.  The range of estimates was 25%-41%, the average being 34%.  The 5-year average pace is 21%.
• Spring Wheat: 24% planted, up from 12% last week.  The range of estimates was 19%-49%, the average being 28%.  The 5-year average pace is 38%.
• Winter Wheat:  29% good/excellent, up 1% from last week.  44% of the crop is rated poor/very poor, that's an increase of 2% from last week. 

Export Inspections

• Corn: 963,351 metric tons, or 37,925,443 bushels.  This was below the low end of estimates.
• Soybeans: 394,755 metric tons, or 14,504,759 bushels. This was within the range of estimates.
• Wheat: 209,138 metric tons, or 7,684,503 bushels.  This was within the range of estimates.

Grain Corridor 

• Deadline for an extension: May 18th

USDA Report

• Friday, May 12th.  We will send out estimates in the coming days.  

Corn Seasonal Trend in Play September corn futures have trended lower for 12 of the last 15 years from 4/30-6/24.  We touched on this seasonal in last Tuesday's inaugural episode of Trade It or Fade It: Trade It or Fade It (Ep. 1) 05/02/2023 - Blue Line Futures Technicals (July) July corn futures tested and failed against our 4-star resistance pocket in yesterday's session, we've had that defined as 595-601.  This pocket represents previously important price points, including the breakdown point from April 27th. In yesterday's report we suggested using the recent relief rally as an opportunity, stating: "If you have been long the market, this may be a spot to consider reducing or hedging exposure.".  That failure flipped our short-term bias into Bearish territory.  If the Bulls can chew through our 4-star resistance pocket it would give back the advantage to the Bulls, with the next objective being 615 3/4-618.   Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 595-601****, 615 3/4-618** Pivot: 586-588 Support: 572-574 1/4***, 545-550****

Soybeans  Seasonal Trend in Play The next Seasonal Trend for soybeans is for the July contract and starts on May 28th.

 

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Wheat Seasonal Trend in Play None

 

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Grains Soybeans Corn Wheat

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