Wheat is Bucking the Trend | Grain Express | 5/3/2023

Posted: May 3, 2023, 7:50 a.m.

Grain futures were under heavy pressure early this morning, but wheat was able to hold its own and is now in positive territory. Is the low finally in?

Corn

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • September corn futures have trended lower for 12 of the last 15 years from 4/30-6/24.  We touched on this seasonal in yesterday's inaugural episode of Trade It or Fade It: Trade It or Fade It (Ep. 1) 05/02/2023 - Blue Line Futures
    • Remember, seasonal tendencies aren't alone enough of a reason to enter a trade.  You should take into account the current environment, including fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment.  With that said, we wouldn't recommend trading this specific seasonal trend, at this point.

ZCN2023_2023-05-03_07-00-24

Technicals (July)

July corn futures looked to be on the up and up yesterday but reversed to finish the session lower, that weakness coupled by a blood bath in the energy sector has led to additional pressure in the early morning trade, making new lows for the move.  The lack of follow-through following Friday's reversal was the caution flag.  To prevent a further deterioration of prices, the Bulls will want to defend 572-574 on a closing basis.  

 

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 595-601 ****, 615 3/4-618**

Pivot:  572-574 1/4 

Support: 545-550****

Soybeans 

 

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • The next Seasonal Trend for soybeans is for the July contract and starts on May 28th.

 

ZSN2023_2023-05-03_07-14-49

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Wheat

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • None

 

Technicals (July)

  • Wheat futures were lower in the early morning trade but have rallied back into positive territory.  The strength despite weakness in the corn and bean market should be encouraging for those looking for a bottom.  We have moved our bias to outright Bullish.  As mentioned previously, options are a great tool to hedge futures or gain exposure when looking for a countertrend trade.

 

Bias: Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance:  665-670***, 712-715***, 730-735***

Pivot: 640-650

Support: 600-605**

ZWN2023_2023-05-02_06-02-37

 

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Grains Soybeans Corn Wheat

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