Markets Brace for the Gauntlet | Morning Express | 05/02/23 |
Posted: May 2, 2023, 8:30 a.m.
- Do not miss yesterday’s Morning Express, ‘Buy in May, Is This Bull Market Here to Stay?’, where we talk about tomorrow’s FOMC decision and rate hike odds for June.
- ISM Manufacturing data for April yesterday morning surprised to the upside, helping to lift the Dollar and rates. Prices and Employment also expanded when contractions were expected.
- JOLTs Job Openings for March coming up at 9:00 am CT.
- Eurozone CPI for April at 7.0% y/y in line with expectations, the rest of the slate was a touch softer than expected, highlighted by +0.7% m/m versus +0.9% expected.
- S. debt ceiling is moving closer to center stage as President Biden and Speaker McCarthy plan May 9th meeting.
- Earnings this morning are highlighted by top and bottom line beats from PFE, UBER, MPC, and MAR.
- UBER is the big headline gainer +7.5%, along with HSCB +5.5%
- AMD, SBUX, and F, among others report after the bell.
E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4185.75, down 2.75
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 13,306.75, down 13.50
Technicals: Price action in the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ is soft but near unchanged on the session as they digest last week’s run-up. Continued price action below our Pivot and point of balance in the S&P, which aligns with our momentum indicator, and is detailed below, will carry yesterday’s soft close into the early part of today’s session. The NQ is also running up against a strong ceiling of major three-star resistance at 13,297-13,329, which has been adjusted to align with settlements. Until we see a decisive close above this level, a consolidation at a minimum will continue. With that, a healthy consolidation is warranted. However, we want to see the S&P hold out above major three-star support at...
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Crude Oil (June)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 76.78, 75.66, down 1.12
Technicals: Crude Oil has responded at a critical level of major three-star resistance at...
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Gold (June) / Silver (July)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1992.2, down 6.9
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 25.23, up 0.004
Technicals: Gold and Silver ripped higher early yesterday but reversed sharply in thin holiday trading (much of the globe, outside the U.S. celebrated Labor Day). Weighing heavily on the tape was stronger than expected ISM Manufacturing, which we covered in yesterday’s Midday Market Minute. Given the reversal, we are back to retesting supports reaffirmed by last week’s rebound. Although neither broke last week’s low yesterday, Silver’s reversal is more pronounced due to the tail. With the U.S. Dollar strengthening, we point to yesterday’s piece, ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision: ‘Buy in May, Is This Bull Market Here to Stay?’. The rematch is set, and a break below major three-star supports at...
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Silver (July)
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