Corn Tests and Holds Our Rare 4-Star Support Pocket | Grain Express 4/26/23

Posted: April 26, 2023, 7:37 a.m.

US Planting Estimates

  • Dr. Michael Cordonnier released updated estimates for corn and bean plantings.
    • He sees US Corn acres at 91.5 million.  Down 500,000 from what the USDA released in the March plantings report. 
    • He sees soybean acres at 88.0 million.  This is up 500,000 from the USDA's perspective plantings report. 

Black Sea Grain Deal

  • Russia has signaled that unless a list of demands is met to remove obstacles to those exports, it will not agree to extend a related deal beyond May 18 that allows the safe wartime export of grain from Ukraine's Black Sea ports. -Reuters
    • There were new comments yesterday, but the summary of the headline is no different than what we've seen in recent weeks.  The market and Managed Money don't seem to be worried about significant disruptions.

Cool Weather Persists

  • Yesterday's updated 6-10 day temperature outlook showed cooler than normal temperatures for much of the Midwest.  Precipitation for the same area is expected to be below normal.
4.26.23 NOAA temp
4.26.23 noaa precip

Corn

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • The next corn seasonal starts on April 30th and is for the September contract

Technicals (July)

Corn futures traded to our rare 4-star support pocket yesterday, which we've had defined as 595-601.  This pocket is both psychologically and technically significant, representing the low end of the range from March, the gap from July 26th, and trendline support from the July 22nd low.  From a risk/reward perspective, we feel this are represents a tradable opportunity to the buy-side, whether that be short covering or initiating a long position.  The risk is well defined on the chart, a break and close below our support pocket would neutralize our bias.  On the resistance side of things, 624-628 would be the first objective.  This pocket represents the 50% retracement from the move lower, as well as the 50-day moving average.   

 

Bias: Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 624-628***, 682 1/2-686****

Pivot: 615 3/4-618

Support:  595-601****, 574 1/4-578***

 

ZCN2023_2023-04-26_06-43-10

Soybeans 

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • July soybeans have trended higher from March 19th-April 30th for 13 of the last 15 years. 

 

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Wheat

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • None

 

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Grains Soybeans Corn Wheat

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