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Crop Progress Estimates

• Corn: 23-25% Planted
• Soybeans: 16-18% Planted 

Commitments of Traders Update

(as of 4/18/2023)

• Corn:  Managed Money were net long 49,434 futures/options contracts.  Broken down that is 220,716 longs (up 7,225) VS 171,282 Shorts (down 15,097).
• Soybeans:  Managed Money were net long 134,782 futures/options contracts.  Broken down that is 153,973 longs (up 11,321) VS 19,191 Shorts (up 1,560).

• Wheat: Managed Money were net short 102,983 futures/options contracts.  Broken down that is 60,545 longs (up 4,239) VS 163,528 Shorts (up 2,975).

Will Low Prices Cure Low Prices?

• Plentiful, cheap Brazilian beans coupled with mediocre demand from China have eased global soybean supply concerns. U.S. export demand for soybeans, corn and wheat has been weak, and although Russia has threatened to pull out of the Black Sea export deal next month, markets were under pressure late last week. -Reuters
• The last time we saw a break in corn prices take us near these price levels, we saw a string of flash sales.  Will that happen again? TBD.  

Black Sea Grain Deal Winding Down?

• A deal allowing the safe Black Sea export of Ukraine grain could start winding down next week after Russia said it will not approve any new vessels unless their operators guarantee the transits will be done by May 18. -Reuters
• We've seen headlines and have heard jawboning from Russia for a while now, with regards to their displeasure of the deal.  The market seems to be tired of the headlines and views it as a "it's on until it's not" atmosphere.  

First Notice Day

• First notice day for May grain futures is Friday, April 28th.  The volume has shifted to July futures.  If you're still in May futures, you'll want to consider flattening or rolling the position in the first half of the week. 

Corn Seasonal Trend in Play The next corn seasonal starts on April 30th and is for the September contract

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Soybeans  Seasonal Trend in Play July soybeans have trended higher from March 19th-April 30th for 13 of the last 15 years.

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Wheat Seasonal Trend in Play None

 

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