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Grain Express 4/10/23

Posted: April 10, 2023, 8:03 a.m.

Commitment of Traders Update

(as of 4/4/2023)

  • Corn:  Managed Money were net long 21,547 futures/options contracts.  Broken down, that is 199,558 longs VS 178,011 shorts.  Though the net position is relatively neutral, the longs and the shorts are large, which has the potential to spark volatility if a fundamental or technical catalyst triggers long liquidation or short covering.  
  • Soybeans:  Managed Money were reported to be net long 145,964 futures/options contracts.  Broken down that is 158,354 longs VS 12,390 shorts.  Though we have seen the funds as long as 189,009 contracts this year (2/21/2023), the risk of long liquidation growing.  
  • Wheat:  Managed Money were reported to be net short 87,083 futures/options contracts.  Broken down that is 56,809 longs VS 143,892 shorts.

Crop Progress

  • Out at 3pm CT.  Crop conditions for wheat will be the "big ticket item" for analysts and traders.  

WASDE Report

Tomorrow's WASDE report will be out at 11am CT. Below are the estimates for US Ending Stocks (in billions of bushels).

  • Corn: 1.319
  • Soybeans: .198
  • Wheat: .574

Outside Markets

  • Equity markets are lower in the early morning trade, crude oil is lower, flirting with the $80.00 handle, and the US Dollar is gaining ground, trading to 102.135.0

Corn

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • The next corn seasonal starts on April 30th and is for the September contract. 

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Soybeans 

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • July soybeans have trended higher from March 19th-April 30th for 13 of the last 15 years.  
  • May soybean futures have trended higher from April 7th to April 21st for 12 of the last 15 years.

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Wheat

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • None

 

 

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