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Grain Express 4/3/23

Posted: April 3, 2023, 6:56 a.m.

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Commitments of Traders Update

  • Corn:  Managed Money was holding a net long corn position of 13,288 as of March 28th.  Broken down that is 186,529 longs VS 198,817 shorts.  Although the net position is Neutral, both longs and shorts are notable and could provide big moves if there was a catalyst to spark short covering or long liquidation.
  • Soybeans:  Managed Money was holding a net long corn position of 99,522 as of March 28th.  Broken down that is 127,121 longs VS 27,599 shorts.  This is a fairly neutral position in our eyes.  We've seen them net long 238,394 contracts in the Fall of 2020 and have seen them as short as 168,835 contracts in the Spring of 2019.  
  • Wheat: Managed Money was holding a net short wheat position of 89,837 as of March 28th.  Broken down that is 57,274 longs VS 147,147shorts.   Though it is a smaller net short than recent weeks, it is one of the largest net short positions in the last 5 years.  In 2017 Managed Money got to a net short position of 157,652 futures/options contracts.

OPEC Production Cuts

  • Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers on Sunday announced further oil output cuts of around 1.16 million barrels per day, in a surprise move. The pledges bring the total volume of cuts by OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other allies, to 3.66 million bpd according to Reuters calculations, equal to 3.7% of global demand.  Sunday's development comes a day before a virtual meeting of an OPEC+ ministerial panel, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, and which had been expected to stick to 2 million bpd of cuts already in place until the end of 2023. -Reuters

New Crop Weekly Options

Corn

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • The next corn seasonal starts on April 30th and is for the September contract. 

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Soybeans 

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • July soybeans have trended higher from March 19th-April 30th for 13 of the last 15 years.  
  • An seasonal trend for May soybeans starts on April 7th.

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Wheat

Seasonal Trend

  • May Chicago wheat futures have trended lower from February 7th through April 7th for 13 of the last 15 years.  The average decline is roughly of 15 cents.  Last year was one of the off-trend years, due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  That brought the average gain down.

 

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