Turmoil Continues | Morning Express | 3/15/2023
Posted: March 15, 2023, 9:39 a.m.
- Turmoil continues and Credit Suisse plunges after Saudi National Bank Chair says no more assistance, CS plunges -20%, below $2 per share, EUFN (iShares European Financials) -6.5%.
- Shortly after CS-Saudi news became widely known, China announced it instructed its military to “increase war preparedness planning”.
- We believe the China news coupled with yesterday’s U.S.-Russia drone incident also has markets on edge, creating a demand for safe havens.
- February U.S. PPI due at 7:30 am CT, producer prices are a leading indicator to consumer prices.
- Expectations for headline are +0.3% m/m, down from +0.7% in January, and +5.4% y/y, down from +6.0%.
- Expectations for Core are +0.4% m/m, down from +0.5% in January, and +5.2% y/y, down from +5.4%.
- Yesterday’s February CPI was not hot and ultimately in line with slowing expectations. Headline at 6.0% y/y, down from 6.4% in January, and +0.4% m/m, down from +0.5%. Although Core m/m was +0.5% versus +0.4% expected. This is a light at the end of the tunnel for the flight against inflation, knowing the Fed’s tightening will got to work, both slowing inflation and the economy.
- February Retail Sales and fresh NY Empire State Manufacturing also due at 7:30 am CT.
- CME FedWatch Tool shows 40.2% chance of no hike next week and 59.8% probability they hike by 25bps. More importantly, odds that rates are 25bps LOWER THAN CURRENT by June are 19.5%, pricing in a cut from current levels.
E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 3954.24, up 65.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,337.00, up 282.00
- Remain cautiously bullish on Tech and broad excessive fear, but landscape is shaky due to renewed banking fears. Data and the path of rates will be crucial.
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NQ (March)
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Crude Oil (April)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 71.33, down 3.47
- Bears have control and momentum is clearly negative while below major three-star resistance at 72.25-72.84. Mus close above here in order to neutralize selling.
- Expectations for today’s EIA are +1.188 mb Crude, -1.82 mb Gasoline, and -1.172 mb Distillates.
- Keep an eye on Cushing, SPR and of course Exports.
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Gold (April) / Silver (May)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1910.9, down 5.6
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22.04, up 0.117
- The dead bodies from Gold’s February 2nd reversal, supply, are at major three-star resistance at 1930.8-1936.4, a close above here is very bullish.
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Silver (May)
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