Grain Express 3/15/23
Posted: March 15, 2023, 7:20 a.m.
China
Grain markets coming off the overnight highs which lines up with the headline below. This statement to us doesn't seem all that out of the ordinary, but it cannot be ignored.
- CHINA TELLS MILITARY TO DEEPEN WAR PREPARENESS PLANNING: XINHUA
Commitment of Traders Update
- Corn: An updated release from the CFTC showed Managed Money cut their net long position by 147,293 contracts in the last week of February. This smashed the old record from March 2017, which was 104,000 contracts. The Funds net long position now stands at just 68,635 futures/options. Broken down that is 211,877 longs VS 143,242 shorts.
Export Sales to China
- Yesterday morning, Private exporters reported sales of 612,000 metric tons (24,093,369 bushels) of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.
South America
- Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his Argentine corn crop estimate another 3mmt, dropping it to 37mmt. He left his estimate for Brazil unchanged at 121 mmt.
Black Sea
- Russia agrees to extend the Black Sea grain deal for another 60 days. Ukraine is still pushing for 120 days.
- Two Russian Su-27 jets carried out what the U.S. military described as a reckless intercept of the MQ-9 "Reaper" drone in international airspace before one of them collided with it at 7:03 a.m. (0603 GMT), causing the drone to crash into the sea. Several times before the collision, the Russian fighter jets dumped fuel on the MQ-9, possibly trying to blind or damage it, and flew in front of the unmanned drone in unsafe maneuvers, the U.S. military said. -Reuters
Outside Markets
- Equity markets are under pressure this morning, crude oil is little changed, and the US Dollar is firming. Yesterday was CPI, today is PPI (producer price index) and Retail sales, those reports will be out at 7:30am CT.
Corn
Seasonal Trend in Play
- None
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Soybeans
Seasonal Trend in Play
- July Soybeans have trended lower from February 24th-March 15th for 12 of the last 15 years.
Upcoming Seasonal Trend
- Starts March 19th.
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Wheat
Seasonal Trend
- May Chicago wheat futures have trended lower from February 7th through April 7th for 13 of the last 15 years. The average decline is roughly of 15 cents. Last year was one of the off-trend years, due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. That brought the average gain down.
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