Grain Express 3/10/23

Soybean futures trade lower on Thursday, settling near their 50-day moving average. Oliver Sloup discusses. 

 A Race to the Bottom

• The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange cut estimates for the Argentine corn crop to 37.5mmt, down from 41 mmt.  This compares to the 40mmt we saw from the USDA this week.  Updated crop ratings from Argentina have their corn crop rated 59% poor and just 5% good.  Last week this was at 56% and 6%.
• BAGE also cut their soybean estimates from 33.5mmt to 29mmt, USDA came in at 33.0mmt this week.  Soybean crop ratings in Argentina were reported at 71% poor, vs 67% last week.  Just 2% of the crop is rated as "good", unchanged from last week.  

Export Sales Highlights

• Corn: Net sales of 1,412,100 MT (55,591,905 bushels) for 2022/2023 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 57 percent from the prior 4-week average.
• Soybeans: Net sales reductions of 23,200 MT (852,453 bushels) for 2022/2023--a marketing-year low--were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.
• Wheat: Net sales of 266,700 MT (9,799,544 bushels) for 2022/2023 were down 6 percent from the previous week, but up 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Cotton: Net sales of 114,500 RB for 2022/2023 were down 33 percent from the previous week and 57 percent from the prior 4-week average. Beef: Net sales of 5,600 MT for 2023--a marketing-year low--were down 31 percent from the previous week and 67 percent from the prior 4-week average.

Flash Sales

• Private exporters reported sales of 184,000 metric tons (6,760,840 bushels) of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

Outside Markets

• This morning's Non-Farm payroll number came in at 265,000, above estimates.  Unemployment ticked up to 3.6%, from 3.4%.  Average hourly earnings were below estimates.   Equity markets initially market reaction was higher.  The US Dollar is retreating, which is offering support to some commodities.