Grain Express 3/9/23
Posted: March 9, 2023, 7:17 a.m.
Small Crops Get Smaller
- Argentina's crop issues have been a widely reported on story since the start of the year and yesterday's WASDE report was further confirmation of those concerns. The cut to production estimates was larger than what most analysts were looking for. The next debate? Was the aggressive cut the last of its kind, or will the small crop continue to get smaller? TBD.
US Exports and Carryout
- Exports were reduced by 75 million bushels reflecting the poor pace of sales and shipments to date despite relatively competitive U.S. prices. With no other use changes, ending stocks were up 75 million bushels from last month.
Weekly Export Sales Estimates
Out at 7:30am CT
- Corn: 600,000 MT and 1,200,000 MT
- Soybeans: 200,000 and 750,000 MT
- Wheat: 150,000 to 500,000 MT
Outside Markets
- Stock indices are little changed this morning. On the agenda this morning, initial jobless claims. Analysts are expecting to see that come in near 195k.
- Crude oil is also little changed this morning, but the dollar is under a little pressure, down .68% to 104.91.
- Tomorrow will be a bigger day for the outside markets, with Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment, out at 7:30am CT.
Corn
Managed Money Position
Still not Up to Date. We will keep you posted when the CFTC gets caught up with the data lag.
Seasonal Trend in Play
- None
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Soybeans
Managed Money Position
- Still not Up to Date. We will keep you posted when the CFTC gets caught up with the data lag.
Seasonal Trend in Play
- July Soybeans have trended lower from February 24th-March 15th for 12 of the last 15 years.
Upcoming Seasonal Trend
- Starts March 19th.
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Wheat
Managed Money Position
- Still not Up to Date. We will keep you posted when the CFTC gets caught up with the data lag.
Seasonal Trend
- May Chicago wheat futures have trended lower from February 7th through April 7th for 13 of the last 15 years. The average decline is roughly of 15 cents. Last year was one of the off-trend years, due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. That brought the average gain down.
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