What Will the Next Fed Hike Be? | Morning Express | 2/17/2023
Posted: Feb. 17, 2023, 8:56 a.m.
- St. Louis Fed President Bullard leaned on the possibility of a 50bps rate hike in March, adding he wants to bring the policy rate to 5.375% as soon as possible. Although he is not a 2023 voter, the rhetoric is expected to be shared among hawkish committee members.
- Both Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Mester said they advocated for a 50bps hike earlier this month.
- The odds of a 50bps hike in March have risen to 18.1%, with 81.9% being for a 25bps hike.
- Yesterday’s U.S. PPI report capped off a deluge of economic data signaling a more resilient economy; CPI, Retail Sales, PPI, Initial Jobless Claims.
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow model raised Q1 to 2.4% on Wednesday from 2.2%.
- Both Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have added another 25bps in June to their policy forecast, bringing the terminal rate to 5.25-5.5%.
- Richmond Fed President Barkin (non-voter) and Fed Governor Bowman speak at 7:30 and 7:45 am CT, both are thought to lean the slightest hawkish.
- January Import Price Index -0.2% in line, Export Price Index +0.8% vs -0.2%.
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E-mini S&P (March) / E-mini NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4099.75, down 58.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,482.50, down 247.50
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NQ (March)
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Crude Oil (March)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 78.74, down 0.09
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Gold (April) / Silver (March)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1851.8, up 6.5
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 21.710, up 0.138
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Silver (March)
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