Daily Market Data | Morning Express | 2/14/2023
Posted: Feb. 14, 2023, 7:58 a.m.
- The U.S. CPI report for January is due at 7:30 am CT. The calculation has been adjusted to put more emphasis on the housing sector and less on things like used cars. While some believe these changes could push the data higher, it is hard to imagine an adjustment that makes inflation look hotter than expected.
- December’s headline m/m CPI has already been revised from a disinflationary -0.1% to +0.1%, further making it tougher to come in hot.
- Headline CPI is expected at 6.2% y/y and +0.5% m/m, whereas the Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast model expects 6.48% and +0.65%.
- Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected at 5.5% y/y and +0.4% m/m, whereas the Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast model expects 5.59% y/y and +0.46% m/m.
- Early February expectations via the Cleveland model are similar to January with headline +0.61% m/m.
- After flattish months in November and December, there are signs inflation is beginning to trend higher again.
- We tend to believe inflation will surprise to the upside, if not this month, certainly in the months to come.
- Philadelphia Fed President Harker speaks at 10:30 am CT, and NY Fed President Williams at 1:05 pm CT, both are 2023 voters.
Do not miss our daily Midday Market Minute, from yesterday.
E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4147.25, up 47.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,540.50, up 194.25
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NQ (March)
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Crude Oil (March)
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Gold (April) / Silver (March)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1863.5, down 11.0
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 21.852, down 0.223
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Silver (March)
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