Grain Express 2/6/23

Posted: Feb. 6, 2023, 9:58 a.m.

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Private exporters reported to the following sales activity

  • 111,800 metric tons (4,401,370) of corn🌽 for delivery to Japan during the 2022/2023 marketing year
  • 200,000 metric tons (7,873,650) of corn🌽 for delivery to Mexico.
    • (Of the total, 100,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year and 100,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2023/2024 marketing year)

Argentina 

Hot and dry weather is expected to make its return in Argentina for the week.  This was reported on by many news outlets last week which may have some of the premium baked into prices.  

 

Brazil

Brazil has the opposite problem as Argentina.  Excess moisture has delayed soybean harvest, which is estimated to be roughly 10% complete.  This has also gotten planting of the safrinha crop off to a slow start, currently about 12% planted.  Safrinha corn is Brazil’s 2nd corn crop, planted right after the soybean harvest.

 

WASDE

Wednesday, February 8th is the next WASDE report.  Historically, this report is a nothing burger.  We will have estimates out by this afternoon.

 

A Look at the Outside Markets

Equity markets are under pressure in the early morning trade, crude oil is up 1.23%, and the US Dollar is continuing it's recovery rally, up .40% to 103.17.

Corn (March)

 

Managed Money Position

Updated each Friday with the weekly CoT Report

  • Delayed by the CFTC.

 

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • May corn futures have traded higher from January 13th to February 6th for 12 of the last 15 years.  Looking at the historical data, this isn't a seasonal that we would label as "high conviction."  The average profit during this time period is only about 8 cents.  
  • ZCH2023_2023-02-06_07-46-27

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Soybeans (March)

 

Managed Money Position

Updated each Friday with the weekly CoT Report

  • Delayed by the CFTC.

 

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • March soybeans have firmed from January 31st to February 12th for 13 of the last 15 years.  The average gain has been about 19 1/2 cents.  For a more in-depth breakdown of this seasonal, reach out to our trade desk or email Seasonals@BlueLineFutures.com.

ZSH2023_2023-02-06_08-11-18

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Wheat (March)

 

Managed Money Position

Updated each Friday with the weekly CoT Report

  • Delayed by the CFTC.

Next Seasonal Trend: February 7th 

ZWH2023_2023-02-06_08-12-22

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Grains Soybeans Corn Wheat

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