If you get the Dollar right, you will get a lot of things right | Morning Express | 1/31/2023
Posted: Feb. 6, 2023, 9:13 a.m.
Last week’s data:
- Blowout jobs report. Nonfarm Payrolls reported 517k jobs created in January versus 185k expected, also revising December higher by 37k.
- Wage Growth was steady, rising by 0.3% m/m, in line, and 4.4% y/y versus 4.3%. However, December was revised higher from +0.3% m/m to +0.4% and 4.6% y/y to 4.8%.
- The Unemployment Rate fell to 3.4%, the lowest since 1969.
- Leisure and Hospitality added 128,000 jobs, Temporary Services added 25,900, Transportation and Warehousing (emphasis on support) added 22,900, and Retail Trade added 30,100, accounting for 206,900. Given these sectors account for nearly half of the jobs added and wages were buoyant, one can assume more wage pressure than one thought one week ago.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing rebounded in January at 55.2 versus 50.4. The report was broadly strong with New Orders hitting a four-month high at 60.4, and Prices at 67.8 continue to expand at a historic pace.
- Last week, the Q4 Employment Cost Index received tremendous focus only +1.0% versus +1.1% expected and down from 1.2% in Q3. However, it remains at a historic level. Conversely, JOLTs Job Openings hit a five-month high for December at 11.012 million and Initial Jobless Claims hit 183k, the lowest in a year and before the rate hike impact.
Fed Speak:
- Fed Chair Powell is set to speak on Tuesday, A Conversation with David Rubenstein at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. at 11:40 pm CT.
- Rubenstein is active on Twitter under @EconguyRosie and currently leans in the disinflation and slowdown camp.
- A deluge of Fed speakers this week and we expect many to pop-up off schedule. Fed Governor Barr also speaks Tuesday, at 1:00 pm CT.
- ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak today at noon CT.
Earnings:
If you get the Dollar right, you will get a lot of things right. |
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E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4147.75, down 43.75 on Friday and up 63.50 on the week
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,624.00, down 222.75 on Friday and up 401.75 on the week
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