---

Fundamentals: Markets rallied significantly yesterday during Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. Though all markets are not created equal, the NQ surged by +2.2% and added another 1.5% overnight after Meta topped earnings estimates, whereas the Dow was flat and lower this morning. The S&P gained 1% and Gold is higher by 1.5%.

 

The committee raised rates by the expected 25bps, and noted more rate hikes to come, plural. However, Powell’s Jackson Hole persona was nowhere to be seen. In fact, we know a thing or two about ego, and his demeanor appeared confident. Using the word disinflation many times throughout the presser, it was like he told us they won the war against inflation without telling us they won the war against inflation. Markets responded joyfully, and the U.S. Dollar Index hit the lowest level in nearly a year (April 22nd), a recipe that stokes inflation. Ultimately, this should not be received well by the Fed, considering the Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast already sees headline CPI rising by 0.60% in both January and February, the sharpest jump in seven months.

 

As we move on, both the BoE and ECB hiked rates by 50bps as expected this morning. ECB President Largarde’s press conference begins at 7:45 am CT. On the economic calendar, Initial Jobless Claims hit a fresh low at 183k. Additionally, Q4 Nonfarm Productivity topped expectations at 3.0% vs 2.4% and Unit Labor Costs were below at +1.1% vs +1.5%, although this was exuded in Tuesday’s Q4 Employment Cost Index. We now look to Factory Orders and Durables.

 

Amid a deluge of healthcare earnings LLY, MRK, and BMY reported mixed results, and all are lower. HON missed on revenues and is also lower. The big story is META after the bell yesterday, topping results and confirming guidance; the stock is +20% ahead of the bell. This paves the way for AAPL, GOOG, and AMZN after the bell.

Let us not forget that tomorrow brings Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM Non-Manufacturing.

Technicals: Momentum has taken over and is clearly strong. The question is whether it is sustainable. Regardless, it clearly is right here, right now. The S&P is trading into a large pocket of strong resistance that aligns the 50% retracement from the October low back to the record high with the September peak. Similarly, the NQ is testing trading into that same September post-CPI reversal, providing resistance levels overhead that are detailed below. It is our belief this move is overdone, however, it may remain irrational. Upon a pullback, we have major three-star supports at 4132 and 12,414, aligning with the gap from yesterday’s settlement.

E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)

 

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4132.25, up 42.25

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,414.24, up 262.25

 

Technicals Premium

🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.

Levels Premium

🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.

Crude Oil (March)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 76.41, down 2.46

Fundamentals: Yesterday’s EIA report posted large builds across the board, even without the White House releasing SPR. Although a significant drop in Exports correlates into the builds, one can elaborate the U.S. demand landscape is weakening. In other parts, the EU is still working on a deal to establish price caps on Russian Oil. The decision was expected yesterday but is now postponed to Friday.

 

 

 

 

Technicals Premium

🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.

Levels Premium

🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.

Gold (April) / Silver (March)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1942.8, down 2.5

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.609, down 0.227

Fundamentals: Gold and Silver set fresh highs overnight, and yesterday’s settlement prices do not account for the post-FOMC surge. The U.S. Dollar Index set a fresh low late yesterday, helping to power the metals complex higher. However, the Dollar is firming a bit on the heels of the ECB and BoE meetings. A fresh low for Initial Jobless Claims did push Gold on its back foot as the focus begins to shift to tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payroll report.

Technicals Premium

🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.

Levels Premium

🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.

Silver (March)

Levels Premium

🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.

 

 

---

Crude Oil Gold Stocks Silver Nasdaq

Like this post? Share it below:

Back to Insights