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Oliver Sloup joined Michelle Rook of AgDay TV yesterday to talk about the markets on the last trading day of the month.

Watch Now!

A Final Look at January Corn:  After trading in a 40 1/2 cent range through the month, March corn futures finished a whopping 1 1/4 cents higher. Soybeans:  March soybeans traded in an 83 1/2 cent range, finishing 18 3/4 higher. Wheat: March Chicago wheat futures traded in an 82-cent range, finishing 30 3/4 lower. Brazil Brazil's soybean harvest is at a slow pace due to wet weather, but there should be enough spots drying out where they can make good progress.   Argentina Parts of Argentina may get some beneficial rains over the next 24-hours, but forecasts turn dry on the 10-14 day outlook.   A Look at the Outside Markets Equity markets are little changed this morning as market participants await today's Federal Reserve statement, out at 1:00pm CT.  Analysts are expecting to see a 25-basis point rate hike.  Arguably more important, will be Fed Chair Powells press conference at 1:30pm CT.  Crude oil futures are .80% higher to 79.50 and the US Dollar is down .20% to 101.71.

Corn (March)

 

Managed Money Position

Updated each Friday with the weekly CoT Report

• Managed funds were net buyers of 9,660 futures/options contracts expanding their net long position to 201,797 contracts. Broken down that is 266,783 longs VS 64,986 shorts.

 

Seasonal Trend in Play  

• May corn futures have traded higher from January 13th to February 6th for 12 of the last 15 years.  Looking at the historical data, this isn't a seasonal that we would label as "high conviction."  The average profit during this time period is only about 8 cents.  

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Soybeans (March)

 

Managed Money Position

Updated with the weekly CoT Report

• Funds were net sellers of 22,036 futures/options contracts, shrinking their net long position to 146,261 contracts. Broken down that is 172,806 longs VS 26,545 shorts.

 

Seasonal Trend in Play

• March soybeans have firmed from January 31st to February 12th for 13 of the last 15 years.  The average gain has been about 19 1/2 cents.  For a more in-depth breakdown of this seasonal, reach out to our trade desk or email Seasonals@BlueLineFutures.com.

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Wheat (March)

 

Managed Money Position

Updated with the weekly CoT Report

• Funds were net sellers of 8,843 futures/options contracts, expanding their net short position for the third straight week, now sitting net short 73,933 contracts, the largest net short position since May of 2019. Broken down that is 53,302 longs VS 127,235 shorts.

 

Seasonal Trend in Play: None

 

Next Seasonal Trend: February 7th 

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Grains Soybeans Corn Wheat

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