Grain Express 1/27/23
Posted: Jan. 27, 2023, 9:43 a.m.
Export Sales to China
Yesterday morning, private exporters reported sales of 106,000 metric tons (3,894,832 bushels) of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
Brazil
AgRural estimates that Brazilian harvest is just 5.2% complete, down from 10.4% for the same week last year, and down from the five-year average of 6.6%.
Argentina
Parts of Argentina continue to get some much-welcomed moisture, especially for those crops that were planted later. Rains remains in the forecast for the next week.
China
China's Lunar New Year will be winding down this weekend, which means next week will be back to "business as usual" for most.
A Look at the Outside Markets
Equity markets staged a strong rally yesterday, but there has so far been little follow-through in the overnight and early morning trade, with indexes near unchanged. Oil futures are up another 1.5% to 82.30. The US Dollar continues to linger near 101.00-102.00.
Corn (March)
Managed Money Position: Managed Money are net long 192,137 futures/options contracts, up 42,533 from the previous week. Broken down, that is 253,836 longs VS 61,699 shorts.
(Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend in Play: May corn futures have traded higher from January 13th to February 6th for 12 of the last 15 years. Looking at the historical data, this isn't a seasonal that we would label as "high conviction." The average profit during this time period is only about 8 cents.
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Soybeans (March)
Managed Money Position: Managed Money are net long 168,298 futures/options contracts, up 36,594 from the previous week. Broken down, that is 186,794 longs VS 18,496 shorts.
(Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend in Play: None
Next Seasonal Trend Start Date: January 31st
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Wheat (March)
Managed Money Position: Managed Money are net short 65,089 futures/options contracts, up 1,955 from the previous week. Broken down, that is 53,729 longs VS 118,818 shorts.
(Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend in Play: None
Seasonal Trend Recap:
March KC Wheat had rallied from January 10th-January 26th for 12 of the last 15 years.
This year marked another year of "on trend". The market made a low on January 10th and finished yesterday's session at the highest price since January 3rd.
Next Seasonal Trend: February 7th
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