Grain Express 1/26/23

Posted: Jan. 26, 2023, 9:14 a.m.

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Export Sales to Unknown Destinations

Yesterday morning, Private exporters reported the following activity: 

  • 100,000 metric tons (3,936,825 bushels) of corn for delivery to unknown destinations
  • 130,000 metric tons (4,776,681 bushels) of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations

 

Weekly Export Sales

  • Corn: Net sales of 910,400 MT for 2022/2023 were down 20 percent from the previous week, but up 46 percent from the prior 4-week average.
  • Soybeans:  Net sales of 1,145,700 MT for 2022/2023 were up 16 percent from the previous week and 53 percent from the prior 4-week average.
  • Wheat:   Net sales of 500,400 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 6 percent from the previous week and 84 percent from the prior 4-week average. 

 

A Look at the Outside Markets

Equity markets are firm in the early morning trade, crude oil is up 1.90%, and the US Dollar continues to consolidate.  

 

Corn (March)

Managed Money Position: Managed Money are net long 192,137 futures/options contracts, up 42,533 from the previous week.  Broken down, that is 253,836 longs VS 61,699 shorts. 

(Updated with the weekly CoT Report)

Seasonal Trend in Play:  May corn futures have traded higher from January 13th to February 6th for 12 of the last 15 years.  Looking at the historical data, this isn't a seasonal that we would label as "high conviction."  The average profit during this time period is only about 8 cents.  

ZCH2023_2023-01-26_06-24-10

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Soybeans (March)

Managed Money Position: Managed Money are net long 168,298 futures/options contracts, up 36,594 from the previous week.  Broken down, that is 186,794 longs VS 18,496 shorts. 

(Updated with the weekly CoT Report)

Seasonal Trend in Play: None

Next Seasonal Trend Start Date: January 31st 

ZSH2023_2023-01-26_06-24-59

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Wheat (March)

Managed Money Position: Managed Money are net short 65,089 futures/options contracts, up 1,955 from the previous week.  Broken down, that is 53,729 longs VS 118,818 shorts. 

(Updated with the weekly CoT Report)

Seasonal Trend in Play: March KC Wheat has rallied from January 10th-January 26th for 12 of the last 15 years.

ZWH2023_2023-01-26_06-26-56

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Grains Soybeans Corn Wheat

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