Grain Express 1/23/23
Posted: Jan. 23, 2023, 10:55 a.m.
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Brazil AgResource wrapped up their Brazilian crop tour late last week. Their conclusion: USDA, CONAB, among others, will end up raising production estimates. Their final yield estimate for Mato Grosso came in at 60.3 bushels per acre. This is nearly 7 bushels more than CONAB's estimate. Argentina Drought conditions in Argentina have been a hot topic for the last several weeks. More favorable conditions made their way into the forecast with problematic areas of Argentina receiving good moisture over the weekend. New Crop Weekly Options New crop weekly options for corn and soybeans start trading this week. This will give producers along with other market participants a lot more flexibility in hedging/speculating in the new crop market. Weekly Export Inspections The weekly export inspections report will be out this morning. Corn continues to be the big laggard of the three gains. Last week was an improvement, but Bulls will want to see that become a trend, not just a one-off. Lunar New Year China is on holiday, celebrating their Lunar New Year. This may impact and limit the amount of business that gets done next week, including import/export. A Look at the Outside Markets Equity markets are trading near unchanged, crude oil is up .85% to 82.33, and the US Dollar is near unchanged. |
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Corn (March)
Managed Money Position: Managed Money are net long 192,137 futures/options contracts, up 42,533 from the previous week. Broken down, that is 253,836 longs VS 61,699 shorts.
(Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend in Play: May corn futures have traded higher from January 13th to February 6th for 12 of the last 15 years. Looking at the historical data, this isn't a seasonal that we would label as "high conviction." The average profit during this time period is only about 8 cents.
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Soybeans (March)
Managed Money Position: Managed Money are net long 168,298 futures/options contracts, up 36,594 from the previous week. Broken down, that is 186,794 longs VS 18,496 shorts.
(Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend in Play: None
Next Seasonal Trend Start Date: January 31st
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Wheat (March)
Managed Money Position: Managed Money are net short 65,089 futures/options contracts, up 1,955 from the previous week. Broken down, that is 53,729 longs VS 118,818 shorts.
(Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend in Play: March KC Wheat has rallied from January 10th-January 26th for 12 of the last 15 years.
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