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Macro and Economic Calendar

• Do not miss our Top Things this Week, out every Sunday. This week covers CPI, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Copper, and more.
• Check out this week’s chartbook, slides ranging from the macro overview to SNPS, WFC, and BA.
• A deluge of economic data from China last night was less worse than expected. The communist country ended draconian-style lockdowns through the end of December.
  • GDP q/q was flat, though expected at -0.8%.
  • Industrial Production at +1.3% hit the slowest since May but beat the +0.2% expected.
  • Fixed Asset Investment +5.1% versus +5.0% exp.
  • Retail Sales -1.8% versus -8.6% exp.
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment for January surprised above 0, signaling optimism at 16.9, versus -15.0 expected and -23.3 for December.
• German ZEW Current Conditions remained negative at 58.6 versus 58.0 expected, but improved slightly from -61.4 in December.
• Employment and Wage data from the U.K. improved better than expected.
• The World Economic Forum from Davos is underway, standby for comments from industry leaders giving a pulse on the global economy.
• NY Empire State Manufacturing, fresh for January, big whiff at -32.90 versus -8.70 expected and -11.20 for December. Worst since May 2020.
  
   

OPEC+ Monthly Report

• World Oil demand growth unchanged, to rise 2.22 mbpd.
• Non-OPEC supply growth unchanged at +1.54 mbpd.
• OECD Commercial Stocks +2.7 mb m/m, +26 mb y/y, but -137 mb below the 5-year average.
• China and jet fuel demand remain the largest uncertainties.
• February WTI little changed at $80 post-release.

Bank of Japan Central bank’s policy meeting is set to conclude tonight at 9:00 pm CT, sometimes not promptly. BoJ Governor Kuroda is expected to step down in April. Has held office since 2013, engineering ultra-loose monetary policy for a decade. Coinciding with his exit, anticipation is mounting he will wind down the historic policy measures. In December, the bank surprised markets by raising the ceiling for 10-year JGBs from 25bps to 50bps. Tokyo CPI y/y hit 4.0% in December, a forty-year high, making it more and more difficult for the BoJ to defend low yields. The BoJ spent 2 trillion Yen, or $15.6 billion, in bond buying over two sessions last week to defend 50bps. Will bond market dysfunction force the BoJ to announce the end of its Yield Curve Control (YCC) as early as tonight? Furthermore, how much have markets already discounted? Although the end of YCC may not be the highest outcome tonight, it has become a base case by the time Kuroda exits office in April. Gold’s rally and U.S. Dollar weakness have been anchored by Japanese Yen strength, see the charts below.

E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)

 

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4018.25, up 14.75 on Friday and 102.75

NQ, yesterday’s: Settled at 11,608.00, up 72.75 on Friday and 494.50 on the week

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NQ (March)

 

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Crude Oil (February)

 

 

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Gold (February) / Silver (March)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1921.7, up 22.9 on Friday and 52.0 on the week

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24.372, up 0.368 on Friday and 0.39 on the week

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Silver (March)

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