Grain Express 1/17/23
Posted: Jan. 17, 2023, 8 a.m.
South America
Beneficial rains and better forecasts for Argentina and parts of Brazil for the next two weeks, have added a headwind to the markets as we start a new week of trade. The changing forecasts will remain center stage for the foreseeable future. Brazil is estimated to be 1% through soybean harvest and roughly 5% through corn harvest.
Production Cuts
Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his Argentine soybean crop again, now at 39mmt, down 2mmt. His corn crop estimate was lowered to 44mmt, down 1mmt. His estimates for Brazilian production remain unchanged with corn at 125mmt and soybeans at 151mmt.
Crush
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) will release their soy crush report today. Analysts are expecting to see Decembers crush near 183 million bushels. That would be about 2% less than last year.
A Look at the Outside Markets
Outside markets are under minor pressure this morning with the S&P down .25% and the NASDAQ down .50%. Oil started the week softer but has rallied back to positive territory in the early morning trade. The US Dollar is little changed.
Corn (March)
Managed Money Position: 137,697
(Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend in Play: May corn futures have traded higher from January 13th to February 6th for 12 of the last 15 years. Looking at the historical data, this isn't a seasonal that we would label as "high conviction." The average profit during this time period is only about 8 cents.
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Below is a daily chart of March corn futures |
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Soybeans (March)
Managed Money Position: 131,704
(Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend in Play: None
Next Seasonal Trend Start Date: January 31st
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Below is a daily chart of March soybean futures |
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Wheat (March)
Managed Money Position: -63,134
(Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend in Play: March KC Wheat has rallied from January 10th-January 26th for 12 of the last 15 years.
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Below is a daily chart of March wheat futures |
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