Livestock Roundup 1/17/23
Posted: Jan. 17, 2023, 7:35 a.m.
Cattle Summary
Daily Cutout Values
Choice: 276.62, Down .87 from the previous day.
Select: 256.89, Down .12 from the previous day.
Choice/Select Spread: 19.73
5 Area Average Cattle Price
Live Steer: 157.61
Live Heifer: 157.37
Dressed Steer: 250.93
Dressed Heifer: 251.52
Daily Slaughter
Estimated at 123,000. 2,000 less than last week but 11,000 more than the same week last year.
Feeder Cattle Index
01/12/2023: 182.03
01/11/2023: 182.36
Live Cattle
Managed Money Position: 91,489
In recent interviews we've talked about the funds holding a rather large net long position, creating a risk of long liquidation. Sure, Managed Money can add to their position, but this is the upper end of their holdings over the last three years. On a longer-term time frame, we've seen Managed Money get in the neighborhood of 130,000-150,000 contracts, 4 previous times. The Fall of 2010, the Spring of 2014, the spring of 2017 and the Spring of 2019. |
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Next Seasonal: A seasonal that has played out for 13 of the last 15 years starts January 29th for June live cattle.
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Feeder Cattle
Managed Money Position: 42
Seasonal Trend in Play: None
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Hogs SummaryDaily Direct Hogs Plant Delivered (as of 1:30 PM CT) Carcass Base Price Range: 65.50-74.00 Weighted Average: 71.80 Change from Prior Day: -.80 Head Count: 3,652 Daily Hog Slaughter 486,000. 33,000 more than last week and 62,000 more than last year. |
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Lean Hogs
Managed Money Position: 22,735
Seasonal Trend in Play: A bullish seasonal trend for August lean hogs goes from December 6th to January 18th. This has played out for 12 of the last 15 years. August is on the edge of winning and losing, faring much better than the February futures.
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