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Can't See the Forest from the Trees | Morning Express | 1/13/2023

Posted: Jan. 13, 2023, 9:24 a.m.

  • Earnings season officially kicks off this morning. The top three companies by market cap reporting today, UNH, JPM, and BAC, all topped both EPS and Revenue forecasts.
  • JPM and BAC are both down more than 2%, but WFC is down more than 4% after missing revenues. All are leading a soft tape into the U.S. open.
  • JPM’s Dimon said the U.S. “economy remains strong,” but sees headwinds in which he does not know the ultimate effect of, ranging from geopolitics, inflation, rising rates, and the Fed’s QT.
  • Comments from bank executives, JPM’s Dimon, BAC’s Moynihan, and BLK’s Fink will impact markets as we head into the weekend.
  • A fresh slate of January Michigan Consumer Data is due at 9:00 am CT. After Consumer Sentiment stabilized from the lowest level on record this summer, it is expected to improve for the second straight month and move back above 60 for the first time since April.
  • However, it is Michigan Consumer Inflation Expectations, 1-year and 5-year, that will be watched most closely. The Fed believes rising inflation expectations are a self-fulfilling prophecy and this was noted as recently as Monday by San Francisco Fed President Daly.
  • Charts below:
    • U.S. Dollar Index weekly, shows it testing the 50% retracement back to 2021 lows.
    • Gold testing resistance at .618 retracement and rare major four-star resistance, it did not close above yesterday. Also, April 29th gap settlement resistance 1911.7.
    • Gold/Silver ratio, Silver has been showing ongoing relative weakness. The ratio is setting up for a reversion of the near-term mean, Gold to outperform. However, it is more often that Gold outperforms Silver in a down or quiet market.
    • E-mini S&P futures tested the trend line from highs and 200-dma yesterday.
     

Catch up on yesterday’s CPI data and the market’s reaction with our daily Midday Market Minute below.

mmmtn11223

Midday Market Minute

 

     
DX 1.13.23
     
GC 1.13.23 up
     
GC-SI ratio 1.13.23
     
ES 1.13.23
     

E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)

 

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4003.50, up 13.50

NQ, yesterday’s: Settled at 11,534.25, up 57.75

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NQ (March)

 

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Crude Oil (February)

 

 

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Gold (February) / Silver (March)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1898.8, up 19.9

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24.004, up 0.523

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Silver (March)

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